San José State at Nevada Week 12 College Football Matchup San José State at Nevada Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 15 2025 · Week 12 · 🏟 Mackay Stadium Reno, NV · Turf · 26,000 cap
San José State✈ 189 miSame TZ
10 55
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San José State
27
Nevada
22
P&R Line San José State -5
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas San José State -10 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
San José State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor San José State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
San José State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
San José State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
San José State -10
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San José State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San José State 2025 Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29San José State vs Central Michigan-11.5L14–1650.5L14–16UN
Sat 9/6San José State at Texas+37.0L7–3852.5L7–38UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20San José State vs Idaho-14.5W31–2851.5W31–28ON
Sat 9/27San José State at Stanford+3.0L29–3049.5L29–30OY
Fri 10/3San José State vs New Mexico-1.5W35–2858.5W35–28OY
Sat 10/11San José State at Wyoming-1.5L28–3550.5L28–35ON
Fri 10/17San José State at Utah State+3.0L25–3063.5L25–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1San José State vs Hawai'i-2.5W45–3855.5W45–38OY
Sat 11/8San José State vs Air Force-6.0L16–2667.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/15San José State at Nevada-10.0L10–5549.5L10–55ON
Sat 11/22San José State at San Diego State+10.0L3–2550.5L3–25UN
Sat 11/29San José State vs Fresno State+3.5L14–4146.0L14–41ON
Nevada 2025 Schedule
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Nevada at Penn State+45.5L11–4658.5L11–46UY
Sat 9/6Nevada vs Sacramento State-8.0W20–1756.0W20–17UN
Sat 9/13Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-9.0L13–1450.0L13–14UN
Sat 9/20Nevada at Western Kentucky+8.5L16–3154.5L16–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Nevada at Fresno State+12.5L17–2045.5L17–20UY
Sat 10/11Nevada vs San Diego State+6.5L10–4442.5L10–44ON
Sat 10/18Nevada at New Mexico+14.0L22–2449.5L22–24UY
Fri 10/24Nevada vs Boise State+20.5L3–2451.5L3–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Nevada at Utah State+10.0L14–5152.5L14–51ON
Sat 11/15Nevada vs San José State+10.0W55–1049.5W55–10OY
Sat 11/22Nevada at Wyoming+6.0W13–739.5W13–7UY
Sat 11/29Nevada vs UNLV+7.5L17–4253.0L17–42ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
San José State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San José State #67
+0.373
Nevada #129
+0.223
San José State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San José State #81
+0.398
Nevada #135
+0.312
San José State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San José State #129
0.121
Nevada #100
0.144
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Nevada Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San José State #130
+6.920
Nevada #133
+6.704
San José State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San José State #54
+0.871
Nevada #124
+0.787
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San José State #120
72.8
Nevada #36
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Nevada Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San José State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San José State
-19.7
Nevada
-21.6
Offense Rating
San José State
6.6
Nevada
4.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San José State
26.3
Nevada
26.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? San José State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San José State #86
1.13
Nevada #116
0.38
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #92
1.25
Nevada #134
2.38
San José State +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San José State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San José State #1
44.3
Nevada #1
18.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #105
37.7
Nevada #125
67.6
San José State +25.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Nevada
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Nevada
91.0 — 3.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Nevada won by 45
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on San José State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
7–5 (58%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Craig Stutzmann Yr 2 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Nevada
Jeff Choate #1
3–10 (23%) · Yr 2 at school
OC David Gilbertson Yr 1 #1
DC Kane Ioane Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself