Sat, Aug 30 2025
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Bulldog Stadium
Fresno, CA
·
Turf
·
41,031 cap
Georgia Southern✈ 2,166 mi-3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Fresno State -2.5
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Fresno State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Southern 2025 Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Georgia Southern at Fresno State | +2.5L14–42 | 54.5 | L14–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Georgia Southern at USC | +29.0L20–59 | 61.5 | L20–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State | -3.0W41–34 | 59.0 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Georgia Southern vs Maine | -22.0W45–17 | 57.5 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Georgia Southern at James Madison | +14.5L10–35 | 54.5 | L10–35 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/9 | Georgia Southern vs Southern Miss | +3.0L35–38 | 59.5 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Georgia Southern vs Georgia State | -6.5W41–24 | 58.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Georgia Southern at Arkansas State | -1.5L24–34 | 59.5 | L24–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/6 | Georgia Southern at App State | +4.5W25–23 | 62.5 | W25–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina | -3.0W45–40 | 59.5 | W45–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion | +10.0L10–45 | 62.0 | L10–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Georgia Southern at Marshall | +10.5W24–19 | 61.5 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| Mon 12/29 | Georgia Southern vs App State | -10.0W29–10 | 58.5 | W29–10 | U | Y |
Fresno State 2025 Schedule
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Fresno State at Kansas | +14.0L7–31 | 51.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 8/30 | Fresno State vs Georgia Southern | -2.5W42–14 | 54.5 | W42–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Fresno State at Oregon State | +1.0W36–27 | 45.5 | W36–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Fresno State vs Southern | -37.5W56–7 | 51.5 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Fresno State at Hawai'i | -2.5W23–21 | 47.5 | W23–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Fresno State vs Nevada | -12.5W20–17 | 45.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Fri 10/10 | Fresno State at Colorado State | -5.5L21–49 | 47.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Fresno State vs San Diego State | +3.0L0–23 | 46.5 | L0–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Fresno State at Boise State | +17.5W30–7 | 47.5 | W30–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Fresno State vs Wyoming | -3.0W24–3 | 40.5 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Fresno State vs Utah State | -1.5L17–28 | 50.5 | L17–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Fresno State at San José State | -3.5W41–14 | 46.0 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/27 | Fresno State vs Miami (OH) | -5.0W18–3 | 41.0 | W18–3 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Fresno State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Fresno State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Fresno State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Southern Edge
Georgia Southern +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Southern Edge
Georgia Southern +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Fresno State
5 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Fresno State
60.3 — 17.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Fresno State won by 28
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Fresno State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia Southern
Clay Helton #1
20–18 (53%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Ryan Aplin
Yr 2
#1
DC
Brandon Bailey
Yr 3
#1
Fresno State
Matt Entz #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Josh Davis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nick Benedetto
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓