San José State at Texas Week 2 College Football Matchup San José State at Texas Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 6 2025 · Week 2 · 🏟 Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium Austin, TX · Turf · 100,119 cap
San José State✈ 1,463 mi+2 hr TZ
7 38
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San José State
12
Texas
41
P&R Line Texas -29
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas -37.0 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
San José State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Texas -37.0
O/U 52.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Texas · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San José State 2025 Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29San José State vs Central Michigan-11.5L14–1650.5L14–16UN
Sat 9/6San José State at Texas+37.0L7–3852.5L7–38UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20San José State vs Idaho-14.5W31–2851.5W31–28ON
Sat 9/27San José State at Stanford+3.0L29–3049.5L29–30OY
Fri 10/3San José State vs New Mexico-1.5W35–2858.5W35–28OY
Sat 10/11San José State at Wyoming-1.5L28–3550.5L28–35ON
Fri 10/17San José State at Utah State+3.0L25–3063.5L25–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1San José State vs Hawai'i-2.5W45–3855.5W45–38OY
Sat 11/8San José State vs Air Force-6.0L16–2667.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/15San José State at Nevada-10.0L10–5549.5L10–55ON
Sat 11/22San José State at San Diego State+10.0L3–2550.5L3–25UN
Sat 11/29San José State vs Fresno State+3.5L14–4146.0L14–41ON
Texas 2025 Schedule
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Texas at Ohio State+1.5L7–1446.5L7–14UN
Sat 9/6Texas vs San José State-37.0W38–752.5W38–7UN
Sat 9/13Texas vs UTEP-39.5W27–1052.5W27–10UN
Sat 9/20Texas vs Sam Houston-39.5W55–051.5W55–0OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Texas at Florida-4.5L21–2942.5L21–29ON
Sat 10/11Texas vs Oklahoma-2.5W23–644.5W23–6UY
Sat 10/18Texas at Kentucky-12.5W16–1345.5W16–13UN
Sat 10/25Texas at Mississippi State-8.5W45–3848.5W45–38ON
Sat 11/1Texas vs Vanderbilt-3.5W34–3148.5W34–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Texas at Georgia+3.5L10–3550.5L10–35UN
Sat 11/22Texas vs Arkansas-10.5W52–3757.5W52–37OY
Fri 11/28Texas vs Texas A&M+2.5W27–1754.5W27–17UY
Wed 12/31Texas vs Michigan-7.0W41–2750.0W41–27OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Texas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San José State #67
+0.283
Texas #66
+0.379
Texas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San José State #81
+0.426
Texas #50
+0.626
Texas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San José State #129
0.121
Texas #24
0.179
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San José State #130
+6.538
Texas #88
+7.555
Texas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San José State #54
+0.830
Texas #96
+0.826
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San José State #120
72.8
Texas #20
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San José State
-19.7
Texas
27.2
Offense Rating
San José State
6.6
Texas
29.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San José State
26.3
Texas
2.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
San José State #86
0.00
Texas #35
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #92
1.00
Texas #29
0.00
San José State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San José State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San José State #1
32.2
Texas #1
11.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #105
39.4
Texas #41
69.7
San José State +20.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas
3 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
Texas
82.9 — 5.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas won by 31
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
7–5 (58%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Craig Stutzmann Yr 2 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
36–16 (69%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Kyle Flood Yr 3 #1
DC Pete Kwiatkowski Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself