San José State at Wyoming Week 7 College Football Matchup San José State at Wyoming Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 11 2025 · Week 7 · 🏟 War Memorial Stadium Laramie, WY · Turf · 29,181 cap
San José State✈ 912 mi+1 hr TZ
28 35
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San José State
22
WYO +1.5
Wyoming
26
P&R Line Wyoming -4.5
P&R Total O/U 48
Confidence 90 High
Vegas San José State -1.5 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
San José State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor San José State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
San José State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
San José State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
San José State -1.5
O/U 50.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Wyoming · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Wyoming 2nd straight Home Game
San José State 2025 Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29San José State vs Central Michigan-11.5L14–1650.5L14–16UN
Sat 9/6San José State at Texas+37.0L7–3852.5L7–38UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20San José State vs Idaho-14.5W31–2851.5W31–28ON
Sat 9/27San José State at Stanford+3.0L29–3049.5L29–30OY
Fri 10/3San José State vs New Mexico-1.5W35–2858.5W35–28OY
Sat 10/11San José State at Wyoming-1.5L28–3550.5L28–35ON
Fri 10/17San José State at Utah State+3.0L25–3063.5L25–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1San José State vs Hawai'i-2.5W45–3855.5W45–38OY
Sat 11/8San José State vs Air Force-6.0L16–2667.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/15San José State at Nevada-10.0L10–5549.5L10–55ON
Sat 11/22San José State at San Diego State+10.0L3–2550.5L3–25UN
Sat 11/29San José State vs Fresno State+3.5L14–4146.0L14–41ON
Wyoming 2025 Schedule
Wyoming's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Wyoming at Akron-8.5W10–049.5W10–0UY
Sat 9/6Wyoming vs Northern Iowa-14.0W31–747.5W31–7UY
Sat 9/13Wyoming vs Utah+24.5L6–3147.5L6–31UN
Sat 9/20Wyoming at Colorado+12.5L20–3745.5L20–37ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Wyoming vs UNLV+4.5L17–3150.5L17–31UN
Sat 10/11Wyoming vs San José State+1.5W35–2850.5W35–28OY
Sat 10/18Wyoming at Air Force+4.0L21–2456.5L21–24UY
Sat 10/25Wyoming vs Colorado State-5.5W28–046.5W28–0UY
Sat 11/1Wyoming at San Diego State+10.0L7–2442.5L7–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Wyoming at Fresno State+3.0L3–2440.5L3–24UN
Sat 11/22Wyoming vs Nevada-6.0L7–1339.5L7–13UN
Sat 11/29Wyoming at Hawai'i+8.5L7–2745.0L7–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Wyoming
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San José State #67
+0.251
Wyoming #123
+0.251
Even
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San José State #81
+0.349
Wyoming #121
+0.455
Wyoming Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San José State #129
0.121
Wyoming #119
0.130
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Wyoming Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San José State #130
+5.542
Wyoming #127
+6.939
Wyoming Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San José State #54
+0.815
Wyoming #116
+0.802
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San José State #120
72.8
Wyoming #134
74.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San José State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Wyoming Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San José State
-19.7
Wyoming
-10.7
Offense Rating
San José State
6.6
Wyoming
13.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San José State
26.3
Wyoming
24.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? San José State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San José State #86
0.75
Wyoming #125
0.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #92
1.75
Wyoming #49
0.75
San José State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San José State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San José State #1
40.8
Wyoming #1
31.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #105
39.5
Wyoming #113
51.3
San José State +9.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
San José State
13.4 — 76.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Wyoming won by 7
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on San José State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
7–5 (58%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Craig Stutzmann Yr 2 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Wyoming
Jay Sawvel #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jay Johnson Yr 2 #1
DC Aaron Bohl Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself