San José State at Utah State Week 8 College Football Matchup San José State at Utah State Matchup - Week 8
Fri, Oct 17 2025 · Week 8 · 🏟 Romney Stadium Logan, UT · Turf · 25,513 cap
San José State✈ 616 mi+1 hr TZ
25 30
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San José State
28
Utah State
32
P&R Line Utah State -4
P&R Total O/U 59.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Utah State -3 · O/U 63.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Utah State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Utah State -3
O/U 63.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San José State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 San José State 2nd straight Road Game
San José State 2025 Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29San José State vs Central Michigan-11.5L14–1650.5L14–16UN
Sat 9/6San José State at Texas+37.0L7–3852.5L7–38UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20San José State vs Idaho-14.5W31–2851.5W31–28ON
Sat 9/27San José State at Stanford+3.0L29–3049.5L29–30OY
Fri 10/3San José State vs New Mexico-1.5W35–2858.5W35–28OY
Sat 10/11San José State at Wyoming-1.5L28–3550.5L28–35ON
Fri 10/17San José State at Utah State+3.0L25–3063.5L25–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1San José State vs Hawai'i-2.5W45–3855.5W45–38OY
Sat 11/8San José State vs Air Force-6.0L16–2667.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/15San José State at Nevada-10.0L10–5549.5L10–55ON
Sat 11/22San José State at San Diego State+10.0L3–2550.5L3–25UN
Sat 11/29San José State vs Fresno State+3.5L14–4146.0L14–41ON
Utah State 2025 Schedule
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Utah State vs UTEP-3.5W28–1659.5W28–16UY
Sat 9/6Utah State at Texas A&M+34.5L22–4457.5L22–44OY
Sat 9/13Utah State vs Air Force+4.0W49–3051.5W49–30OY
Sat 9/20Utah State vs McNeese-23.5W48–763.0W48–7UY
Sat 9/27Utah State at Vanderbilt+23.5L35–5557.5L35–55OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Utah State at Hawai'i-1.5L26–4457.5L26–44ON
Fri 10/17Utah State vs San José State-3.0W30–2563.5W30–25UY
Sat 10/25Utah State at New Mexico+3.0L14–3361.5L14–33UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Utah State vs Nevada-10.0W51–1452.5W51–14OY
Sat 11/15Utah State at UNLV+4.5L26–2968.5L26–29UY
Sat 11/22Utah State at Fresno State+1.5W28–1750.5W28–17UY
Fri 11/28Utah State vs Boise State+1.5L24–2554.5L24–25UY
Mon 12/22Utah State vs Washington State-1.0L21–3450.0L21–34ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San José State #67
+0.401
Utah State #47
+0.400
Even
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San José State #81
+0.458
Utah State #70
+0.581
Utah State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San José State #129
0.121
Utah State #114
0.134
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Utah State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San José State #130
+6.541
Utah State #16
+8.524
Utah State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San José State #54
+0.869
Utah State #91
+0.831
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San José State #120
72.8
Utah State #92
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Utah State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Utah State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San José State
-19.7
Utah State
-8.3
Offense Rating
San José State
6.6
Utah State
10.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San José State
26.3
Utah State
18.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
San José State #86
0.80
Utah State #121
0.80
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #92
1.60
Utah State #108
1.80
San José State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Utah State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San José State #1
46.8
Utah State #1
48.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #105
35.1
Utah State #81
40.8
Utah State +1.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
Utah State
46.3 — 32.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Utah State won by 5
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Utah State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
7–5 (58%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Craig Stutzmann Yr 2 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Utah State
Bronco Mendenhall #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 1 #1
DC Nick Howell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself