New Mexico at San José State Week 6 College Football Matchup New Mexico at San José State Matchup - Week 6
Fri, Oct 3 2025 · Week 6 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium San Jose, CA · Turf · 30,456 cap
New Mexico✈ 862 mi-1 hr TZ
28 35
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico
29
San José State
27
P&R Line New Mexico -2.5
P&R Total O/U 56
Confidence 90 High
Vegas San José State -1.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
New Mexico has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor New Mexico entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
New Mexico wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
New Mexico wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
San José State -1.5
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → New Mexico · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico 2025 Schedule
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30New Mexico at Michigan+36.5L17–3452.5L17–34UY
Sat 9/6New Mexico vs Idaho State-17.5W32–2260.0W32–22UN
Fri 9/12New Mexico at UCLA+15.5W35–1052.5W35–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27New Mexico vs New Mexico State-16.5W38–2053.5W38–20OY
Fri 10/3New Mexico at San José State+1.5L28–3558.5L28–35ON
Sat 10/11New Mexico at Boise State+14.5L25–4158.5L25–41ON
Sat 10/18New Mexico vs Nevada-14.0W24–2249.5W24–22UN
Sat 10/25New Mexico vs Utah State-3.0W33–1461.5W33–14UY
Sat 11/1New Mexico at UNLV+3.5W40–3561.5W40–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15New Mexico vs Colorado State-15.5W20–1753.5W20–17UN
Sat 11/22New Mexico at Air Force-3.5W20–353.5W20–3UY
Fri 11/28New Mexico vs San Diego State+1.5W23–1741.5W23–17UY
Fri 12/26New Mexico vs Minnesota+1.5L17–2044.5L17–20UN
San José State 2025 Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29San José State vs Central Michigan-11.5L14–1650.5L14–16UN
Sat 9/6San José State at Texas+37.0L7–3852.5L7–38UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20San José State vs Idaho-14.5W31–2851.5W31–28ON
Sat 9/27San José State at Stanford+3.0L29–3049.5L29–30OY
Fri 10/3San José State vs New Mexico-1.5W35–2858.5W35–28OY
Sat 10/11San José State at Wyoming-1.5L28–3550.5L28–35ON
Fri 10/17San José State at Utah State+3.0L25–3063.5L25–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1San José State vs Hawai'i-2.5W45–3855.5W45–38OY
Sat 11/8San José State vs Air Force-6.0L16–2667.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/15San José State at Nevada-10.0L10–5549.5L10–55ON
Sat 11/22San José State at San Diego State+10.0L3–2550.5L3–25UN
Sat 11/29San José State vs Fresno State+3.5L14–4146.0L14–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
New Mexico PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ New Mexico
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ New Mexico
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico #65
+0.380
San José State #67
+0.291
New Mexico Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico #63
+0.603
San José State #81
+0.458
New Mexico Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico #36
0.172
San José State #129
0.121
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
New Mexico Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico #44
+7.993
San José State #130
+5.892
New Mexico Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico #78
+0.839
San José State #54
+0.835
New Mexico Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico #85
71.6
San José State #120
72.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
New Mexico Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
New Mexico Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico
1.1
San José State
-19.7
Offense Rating
New Mexico
17.3
San José State
6.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico
16.2
San José State
26.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? New Mexico Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico #38
1.33
San José State #86
0.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico #39
0.33
San José State #92
1.67
New Mexico +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? New Mexico Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico #1
44.1
San José State #1
28.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico #40
37.1
San José State #105
47.7
New Mexico +15.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
San José State
90.1 — 6.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
San José State won by 7
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on New Mexico with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico
Jason Eck #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Luke Schleusner Yr 1 #1
DC Spence Nowinsky Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
7–5 (58%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Craig Stutzmann Yr 2 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself