Sat, Sep 20 2025
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
San Jose, CA
·
Turf
·
30,456 cap
Idaho✈ 695 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
San José State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
San José State -14.5
O/U 51.5
Bovada
Idaho 2025 Schedule
Idaho's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Idaho at Washington State | +16.5L10–13 | 50.5 | L10–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Idaho at San José State | +14.5L28–31 | 51.5 | L28–31 | O | Y |
San José State 2025 Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | San José State vs Central Michigan | -11.5L14–16 | 50.5 | L14–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | San José State at Texas | +37.0L7–38 | 52.5 | L7–38 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | San José State vs Idaho | -14.5W31–28 | 51.5 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | San José State at Stanford | +3.0L29–30 | 49.5 | L29–30 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/3 | San José State vs New Mexico | -1.5W35–28 | 58.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | San José State at Wyoming | -1.5L28–35 | 50.5 | L28–35 | O | N |
| Fri 10/17 | San José State at Utah State | +3.0L25–30 | 63.5 | L25–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | San José State vs Hawai'i | -2.5W45–38 | 55.5 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | San José State vs Air Force | -6.0L16–26 | 67.5 | L16–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | San José State at Nevada | -10.0L10–55 | 49.5 | L10–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | San José State at San Diego State | +10.0L3–25 | 50.5 | L3–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | San José State vs Fresno State | +3.5L14–41 | 46.0 | L14–41 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Idaho Edge
Idaho +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San José State Edge
San José State +6.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓