Sat, Nov 1 2025
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Albertsons Stadium
Boise, ID
·
Turf
·
36,387 cap
Fresno State✈ 505 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Fresno State,
while Game Control favors Boise State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Boise State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Boise State -17.5
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Boise State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Fresno State 2025 Schedule
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Fresno State at Kansas | +14.0L7–31 | 51.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 8/30 | Fresno State vs Georgia Southern | -2.5W42–14 | 54.5 | W42–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Fresno State at Oregon State | +1.0W36–27 | 45.5 | W36–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Fresno State vs Southern | -37.5W56–7 | 51.5 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Fresno State at Hawai'i | -2.5W23–21 | 47.5 | W23–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Fresno State vs Nevada | -12.5W20–17 | 45.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Fri 10/10 | Fresno State at Colorado State | -5.5L21–49 | 47.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Fresno State vs San Diego State | +3.0L0–23 | 46.5 | L0–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Fresno State at Boise State | +17.5W30–7 | 47.5 | W30–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Fresno State vs Wyoming | -3.0W24–3 | 40.5 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Fresno State vs Utah State | -1.5L17–28 | 50.5 | L17–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Fresno State at San José State | -3.5W41–14 | 46.0 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/27 | Fresno State vs Miami (OH) | -5.0W18–3 | 41.0 | W18–3 | U | Y |
Boise State 2025 Schedule
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Boise State at South Florida | -8.5L7–34 | 63.5 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Fri 9/5 | Boise State vs Eastern Washington | -33.5W51–14 | 60.5 | W51–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Boise State at Air Force | -10.5W49–37 | 51.5 | W49–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Boise State vs App State | -16.5W47–14 | 59.5 | W47–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Boise State at Notre Dame | +21.5L7–28 | 63.5 | L7–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Boise State vs New Mexico | -14.5W41–25 | 58.5 | W41–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Boise State vs UNLV | -12.5W56–31 | 60.5 | W56–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/24 | Boise State at Nevada | -20.5W24–3 | 51.5 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Boise State vs Fresno State | -17.5L7–30 | 47.5 | L7–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | Boise State at San Diego State | +1.5L7–17 | 41.5 | L7–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Boise State vs Colorado State | -17.5W49–21 | 46.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | Boise State at Utah State | -1.5W25–24 | 54.5 | W25–24 | U | N |
| Fri 12/5 | Boise State vs UNLV | -6.0W38–21 | 60.0 | W38–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/13 | Boise State vs Washington | +9.5L10–38 | 55.5 | L10–38 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boise State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +24.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Fresno State
Matt Entz #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Josh Davis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nick Benedetto
Yr 1
#1
Boise State
Spencer Danielson #1
15–2 (88%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Nate Potter
Yr 1
#1
DC
Erik Chinander
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓