Air Force at San José State Week 11 College Football Matchup Air Force at San José State Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 8 2025 · Week 11 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium San Jose, CA · Turf · 30,456 cap
Air Force✈ 930 mi-1 hr TZ
26 16
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Air Force
33
San José State
30
P&R Line Air Force -3.5
P&R Total O/U 63
Confidence 86 High
Vegas San José State -6 · O/U 67.5
Matchup Prediction
San José State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor San José State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
San José State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
San José State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
San José State -6
O/U 67.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San José State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 San José State 2nd straight Home Game
Air Force 2025 Schedule
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Air Force vs Bucknell-31.0W49–1354.5W49–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/13Air Force at Utah State-4.0L30–4951.5L30–49ON
Sat 9/20Air Force vs Boise State+10.5L37–4951.5L37–49ON
Sat 9/27Air Force vs Hawai'i-7.0L35–4452.5L35–44ON
Sat 10/4Air Force at Navy+13.5L31–3450.5L31–34OY
Sat 10/11Air Force at UNLV+7.0L48–5165.5L48–51OY
Sat 10/18Air Force vs Wyoming-4.0W24–2156.5W24–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Air Force vs Army+1.5L17–2048.5L17–20UN
Sat 11/8Air Force at San José State+6.0W26–1667.5W26–16UY
Sat 11/15Air Force at UConn+7.5L16–2664.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/22Air Force vs New Mexico+3.5L3–2053.5L3–20UN
Fri 11/28Air Force at Colorado State-2.5W42–2147.5W42–21OY
San José State 2025 Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29San José State vs Central Michigan-11.5L14–1650.5L14–16UN
Sat 9/6San José State at Texas+37.0L7–3852.5L7–38UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20San José State vs Idaho-14.5W31–2851.5W31–28ON
Sat 9/27San José State at Stanford+3.0L29–3049.5L29–30OY
Fri 10/3San José State vs New Mexico-1.5W35–2858.5W35–28OY
Sat 10/11San José State at Wyoming-1.5L28–3550.5L28–35ON
Fri 10/17San José State at Utah State+3.0L25–3063.5L25–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1San José State vs Hawai'i-2.5W45–3855.5W45–38OY
Sat 11/8San José State vs Air Force-6.0L16–2667.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/15San José State at Nevada-10.0L10–5549.5L10–55ON
Sat 11/22San José State at San Diego State+10.0L3–2550.5L3–25UN
Sat 11/29San José State vs Fresno State+3.5L14–4146.0L14–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
San José State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Air Force #19
+0.487
San José State #67
+0.587
San José State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Air Force #2
+0.882
San José State #81
+0.731
Air Force Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Air Force #133
0.107
San José State #129
0.121
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San José State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Air Force #12
+8.635
San José State #130
+7.048
Air Force Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Air Force #18
+0.894
San José State #54
+0.933
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Air Force #92
71.8
San José State #120
72.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Air Force Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Air Force Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Air Force
-8.3
San José State
-19.7
Offense Rating
Air Force
8.5
San José State
6.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Air Force
16.9
San José State
26.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? San José State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Air Force #115
0.29
San José State #86
1.14
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Air Force #57
0.86
San José State #92
1.43
San José State +0.86
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San José State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Air Force #1
29.6
San José State #1
47.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Air Force #101
51.0
San José State #105
33.9
San José State +18.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
San José State
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Air Force
18.9 — 68.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Air Force won by 10
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on San José State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
135–89 (60%) · Yr 19 at school
OC Mike Thiessen Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Knorr Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
7–5 (58%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Craig Stutzmann Yr 2 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself