Utah State at UNLV Week 12 College Football Matchup Utah State at UNLV Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 15 2025 · Week 12 · 🏟 Allegiant Stadium Las Vegas, NV · Turf · 65,000 cap
Utah State✈ 2,153 mi-1 hr TZ
26 29
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Utah State
28
UNLV
38
P&R Line UNLV -10
P&R Total O/U 65.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas UNLV -4.5 · O/U 68.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Utah State, while Game Control favors UNLV. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Utah State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
UNLV wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
UNLV -4.5
O/U 68.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UNLV · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Utah State 2025 Schedule
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Utah State vs UTEP-3.5W28–1659.5W28–16UY
Sat 9/6Utah State at Texas A&M+34.5L22–4457.5L22–44OY
Sat 9/13Utah State vs Air Force+4.0W49–3051.5W49–30OY
Sat 9/20Utah State vs McNeese-23.5W48–763.0W48–7UY
Sat 9/27Utah State at Vanderbilt+23.5L35–5557.5L35–55OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Utah State at Hawai'i-1.5L26–4457.5L26–44ON
Fri 10/17Utah State vs San José State-3.0W30–2563.5W30–25UY
Sat 10/25Utah State at New Mexico+3.0L14–3361.5L14–33UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Utah State vs Nevada-10.0W51–1452.5W51–14OY
Sat 11/15Utah State at UNLV+4.5L26–2968.5L26–29UY
Sat 11/22Utah State at Fresno State+1.5W28–1750.5W28–17UY
Fri 11/28Utah State vs Boise State+1.5L24–2554.5L24–25UY
Mon 12/22Utah State vs Washington State-1.0L21–3450.0L21–34ON
UNLV 2025 Schedule
UNLV's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23UNLV vs Idaho State-30.5W38–3167.0W38–31ON
Fri 8/29UNLV vs Sam Houston-13.5W38–2158.5W38–21OY
Sat 9/6UNLV vs UCLA+2.5W30–2354.5W30–23UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20UNLV at Miami (OH)-2.5W41–3849.5W41–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4UNLV at Wyoming-4.5W31–1750.5W31–17UY
Sat 10/11UNLV vs Air Force-7.0W51–4865.5W51–48ON
Sat 10/18UNLV at Boise State+12.5L31–5660.5L31–56ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1UNLV vs New Mexico-3.5L35–4061.5L35–40ON
Sat 11/8UNLV at Colorado State-5.5W42–1060.5W42–10UY
Sat 11/15UNLV vs Utah State-4.5W29–2668.5W29–26UN
Fri 11/21UNLV vs Hawai'i-2.5W38–1064.5W38–10UY
Sat 11/29UNLV at Nevada-7.5W42–1753.0W42–17OY
Fri 12/5UNLV at Boise State+6.0L21–3860.0L21–38UN
Tue 12/23UNLV vs Ohio-6.5L10–1764.5L10–17UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
UNLV PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UNLV
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Utah State #47
+0.414
UNLV #15
+0.521
UNLV Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Utah State #70
+0.493
UNLV #33
+0.603
UNLV Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Utah State #114
0.134
UNLV #86
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UNLV Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Utah State #16
+8.268
UNLV #18
+8.215
Utah State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Utah State #91
+0.852
UNLV #19
+0.903
UNLV Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Utah State #92
71.8
UNLV #92
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Even
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UNLV Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Utah State
-8.3
UNLV
2.0
Offense Rating
Utah State
10.0
UNLV
17.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Utah State
18.3
UNLV
15.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Utah State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Utah State #121
0.88
UNLV #48
0.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah State #108
1.25
UNLV #62
1.25
Utah State +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UNLV Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Utah State #1
48.6
UNLV #1
50.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah State #81
41.2
UNLV #74
37.0
UNLV +1.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Utah State
29.7 — 38.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
UNLV won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Utah State
Bronco Mendenhall #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 1 #1
DC Nick Howell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UNLV
Dan Mullen #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Corey Dennis Yr 1 #1
DC Zach Anrett Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself