Air Force at Utah State Week 3 College Football Matchup Air Force at Utah State Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 13 2025 · Week 3 · 🏟 Romney Stadium Logan, UT · Turf · 25,513 cap
Air Force✈ 413 miSame TZ
30 49
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Air Force
29
Utah State
27
P&R Line Air Force -2
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Air Force -4 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Air Force wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Air Force -4
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Utah State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Air Force Coming off BYE
Air Force 2025 Schedule
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Air Force vs Bucknell-31.0W49–1354.5W49–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/13Air Force at Utah State-4.0L30–4951.5L30–49ON
Sat 9/20Air Force vs Boise State+10.5L37–4951.5L37–49ON
Sat 9/27Air Force vs Hawai'i-7.0L35–4452.5L35–44ON
Sat 10/4Air Force at Navy+13.5L31–3450.5L31–34OY
Sat 10/11Air Force at UNLV+7.0L48–5165.5L48–51OY
Sat 10/18Air Force vs Wyoming-4.0W24–2156.5W24–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Air Force vs Army+1.5L17–2048.5L17–20UN
Sat 11/8Air Force at San José State+6.0W26–1667.5W26–16UY
Sat 11/15Air Force at UConn+7.5L16–2664.5L16–26UN
Sat 11/22Air Force vs New Mexico+3.5L3–2053.5L3–20UN
Fri 11/28Air Force at Colorado State-2.5W42–2147.5W42–21OY
Utah State 2025 Schedule
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Utah State vs UTEP-3.5W28–1659.5W28–16UY
Sat 9/6Utah State at Texas A&M+34.5L22–4457.5L22–44OY
Sat 9/13Utah State vs Air Force+4.0W49–3051.5W49–30OY
Sat 9/20Utah State vs McNeese-23.5W48–763.0W48–7UY
Sat 9/27Utah State at Vanderbilt+23.5L35–5557.5L35–55OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Utah State at Hawai'i-1.5L26–4457.5L26–44ON
Fri 10/17Utah State vs San José State-3.0W30–2563.5W30–25UY
Sat 10/25Utah State at New Mexico+3.0L14–3361.5L14–33UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Utah State vs Nevada-10.0W51–1452.5W51–14OY
Sat 11/15Utah State at UNLV+4.5L26–2968.5L26–29UY
Sat 11/22Utah State at Fresno State+1.5W28–1750.5W28–17UY
Fri 11/28Utah State vs Boise State+1.5L24–2554.5L24–25UY
Mon 12/22Utah State vs Washington State-1.0L21–3450.0L21–34ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Utah State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Utah State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Utah State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Utah State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Air Force #19
+0.508
Utah State #47
+0.609
Utah State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Air Force #2
+0.781
Utah State #70
+0.753
Air Force Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Air Force #133
0.107
Utah State #114
0.134
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Utah State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Air Force #12
+8.366
Utah State #16
+8.761
Utah State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Air Force #18
+0.907
Utah State #91
+0.907
Even
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Air Force #92
71.8
Utah State #92
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Even
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Overall Power Rating
Air Force
-8.3
Utah State
-8.3
Offense Rating
Air Force
8.5
Utah State
10.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Air Force
16.9
Utah State
18.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Air Force Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Air Force #115
0.00
Utah State #121
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Air Force #57
0.00
Utah State #108
1.00
Air Force +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Air Force Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Air Force #1
96.6
Utah State #1
41.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Air Force #101
0.5
Utah State #81
50.0
Air Force +55.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Utah State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Utah State
86.8 — 8.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Utah State won by 19
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
135–89 (60%) · Yr 19 at school
OC Mike Thiessen Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Knorr Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Utah State
Bronco Mendenhall #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 1 #1
DC Nick Howell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself