Sat, Oct 11 2025
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Honolulu, HI
·
Turf
·
9,000 cap
Utah State✈ 3,010 mi-4 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Hawai'i
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Hawai'i entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Hawai'i wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Hawai'i wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Utah State -1.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Hawai'i
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Utah State 2025 Schedule
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Utah State vs UTEP | -3.5W28–16 | 59.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Utah State at Texas A&M | +34.5L22–44 | 57.5 | L22–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Utah State vs Air Force | +4.0W49–30 | 51.5 | W49–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Utah State vs McNeese | -23.5W48–7 | 63.0 | W48–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Utah State at Vanderbilt | +23.5L35–55 | 57.5 | L35–55 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Utah State at Hawai'i | -1.5L26–44 | 57.5 | L26–44 | O | N |
| Fri 10/17 | Utah State vs San José State | -3.0W30–25 | 63.5 | W30–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Utah State at New Mexico | +3.0L14–33 | 61.5 | L14–33 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Utah State vs Nevada | -10.0W51–14 | 52.5 | W51–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Utah State at UNLV | +4.5L26–29 | 68.5 | L26–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Utah State at Fresno State | +1.5W28–17 | 50.5 | W28–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | Utah State vs Boise State | +1.5L24–25 | 54.5 | L24–25 | U | Y |
| Mon 12/22 | Utah State vs Washington State | -1.0L21–34 | 50.0 | L21–34 | O | N |
Hawai'i 2025 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Hawai'i vs Stanford | -1.5W23–20 | 53.5 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 8/30 | Hawai'i at Arizona | +13.5L6–40 | 55.5 | L6–40 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Hawai'i vs Sam Houston | -7.0W37–20 | 47.5 | W37–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Hawai'i vs Portland State | -35.5W23–3 | 54.5 | W23–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Hawai'i vs Fresno State | +2.5L21–23 | 47.5 | L21–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Hawai'i at Air Force | +7.0W44–35 | 52.5 | W44–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Hawai'i vs Utah State | +1.5W44–26 | 57.5 | W44–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Hawai'i at Colorado State | +2.5W31–19 | 53.5 | W31–19 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Hawai'i at San José State | +2.5L38–45 | 55.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Hawai'i vs San Diego State | +6.5W38–6 | 48.5 | W38–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/21 | Hawai'i at UNLV | +2.5L10–38 | 64.5 | L10–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Hawai'i vs Wyoming | -8.5W27–7 | 45.0 | W27–7 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/24 | Hawai'i vs California | -1.5W35–31 | 50.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Hawai'i
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Hawai'i Edge
Hawai'i +0.05
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Hawai'i Edge
Hawai'i +0.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Hawai'i
3 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Hawai'i
51.0 — 19.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Hawai'i won by 18
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Hawai'i, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Utah State
Bronco Mendenhall #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Kevin McGiven
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nick Howell
Yr 1
#1
Hawai'i
Timmy Chang #1
13–25 (34%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Timmy Chang
Yr 2
#1
DC
Dennis Thurman
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓