Utah State at New Mexico Week 9 College Football Matchup Utah State at New Mexico Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 25 2025 · Week 9 · 🏟 University Stadium Albuquerque, NM · Turf · 39,224 cap
Utah State✈ 540 miSame TZ
14 33
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Utah State
26
New Mexico
32
P&R Line New Mexico -5.5
P&R Total O/U 58
Confidence 90 High
Vegas New Mexico -3 · O/U 61.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors New Mexico, while Game Control favors Utah State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
New Mexico wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Utah State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
New Mexico -3
O/U 61.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → New Mexico · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 New Mexico 2nd straight Home Game
Utah State 2025 Schedule
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Utah State vs UTEP-3.5W28–1659.5W28–16UY
Sat 9/6Utah State at Texas A&M+34.5L22–4457.5L22–44OY
Sat 9/13Utah State vs Air Force+4.0W49–3051.5W49–30OY
Sat 9/20Utah State vs McNeese-23.5W48–763.0W48–7UY
Sat 9/27Utah State at Vanderbilt+23.5L35–5557.5L35–55OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Utah State at Hawai'i-1.5L26–4457.5L26–44ON
Fri 10/17Utah State vs San José State-3.0W30–2563.5W30–25UY
Sat 10/25Utah State at New Mexico+3.0L14–3361.5L14–33UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Utah State vs Nevada-10.0W51–1452.5W51–14OY
Sat 11/15Utah State at UNLV+4.5L26–2968.5L26–29UY
Sat 11/22Utah State at Fresno State+1.5W28–1750.5W28–17UY
Fri 11/28Utah State vs Boise State+1.5L24–2554.5L24–25UY
Mon 12/22Utah State vs Washington State-1.0L21–3450.0L21–34ON
New Mexico 2025 Schedule
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30New Mexico at Michigan+36.5L17–3452.5L17–34UY
Sat 9/6New Mexico vs Idaho State-17.5W32–2260.0W32–22UN
Fri 9/12New Mexico at UCLA+15.5W35–1052.5W35–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27New Mexico vs New Mexico State-16.5W38–2053.5W38–20OY
Fri 10/3New Mexico at San José State+1.5L28–3558.5L28–35ON
Sat 10/11New Mexico at Boise State+14.5L25–4158.5L25–41ON
Sat 10/18New Mexico vs Nevada-14.0W24–2249.5W24–22UN
Sat 10/25New Mexico vs Utah State-3.0W33–1461.5W33–14UY
Sat 11/1New Mexico at UNLV+3.5W40–3561.5W40–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15New Mexico vs Colorado State-15.5W20–1753.5W20–17UN
Sat 11/22New Mexico at Air Force-3.5W20–353.5W20–3UY
Fri 11/28New Mexico vs San Diego State+1.5W23–1741.5W23–17UY
Fri 12/26New Mexico vs Minnesota+1.5L17–2044.5L17–20UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
New Mexico PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ New Mexico
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ New Mexico
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Utah State #47
+0.312
New Mexico #65
+0.402
New Mexico Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Utah State #70
+0.480
New Mexico #63
+0.502
New Mexico Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Utah State #114
0.134
New Mexico #36
0.172
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
New Mexico Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Utah State #16
+7.606
New Mexico #44
+7.724
New Mexico Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Utah State #91
+0.809
New Mexico #78
+0.852
New Mexico Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Utah State #92
71.8
New Mexico #85
71.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
New Mexico Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
New Mexico Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Utah State
-8.3
New Mexico
1.1
Offense Rating
Utah State
10.0
New Mexico
17.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Utah State
18.3
New Mexico
16.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? New Mexico Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Utah State #121
0.83
New Mexico #38
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah State #108
1.67
New Mexico #39
1.00
New Mexico +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Utah State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Utah State #1
48.0
New Mexico #1
41.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah State #81
39.6
New Mexico #40
44.7
Utah State +6.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Utah State
Bronco Mendenhall #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 1 #1
DC Nick Howell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
New Mexico
Jason Eck #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Luke Schleusner Yr 1 #1
DC Spence Nowinsky Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself