Sat, Sep 20 2025
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Week 4
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🏟 Romney Stadium
Logan, UT
·
Turf
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25,513 cap
McNeese✈ 1,306 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Utah State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Utah State -23.5
O/U 63.0
Bovada
McNeese 2025 Schedule
McNeese's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/6 | McNeese at Louisiana | +19.0L10–34 | 50.0 | L10–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | McNeese at Utah State | +23.5L7–48 | 63.0 | L7–48 | U | N |
Utah State 2025 Schedule
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Utah State vs UTEP | -3.5W28–16 | 59.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Utah State at Texas A&M | +34.5L22–44 | 57.5 | L22–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Utah State vs Air Force | +4.0W49–30 | 51.5 | W49–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Utah State vs McNeese | -23.5W48–7 | 63.0 | W48–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Utah State at Vanderbilt | +23.5L35–55 | 57.5 | L35–55 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Utah State at Hawai'i | -1.5L26–44 | 57.5 | L26–44 | O | N |
| Fri 10/17 | Utah State vs San José State | -3.0W30–25 | 63.5 | W30–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Utah State at New Mexico | +3.0L14–33 | 61.5 | L14–33 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Utah State vs Nevada | -10.0W51–14 | 52.5 | W51–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Utah State at UNLV | +4.5L26–29 | 68.5 | L26–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Utah State at Fresno State | +1.5W28–17 | 50.5 | W28–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | Utah State vs Boise State | +1.5L24–25 | 54.5 | L24–25 | U | Y |
| Mon 12/22 | Utah State vs Washington State | -1.0L21–34 | 50.0 | L21–34 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
McNeese Edge
McNeese +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Utah State Edge
Utah State +33.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓