Sat, Sep 6 2025
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Kyle Field
College Station, TX
·
Turf
·
102,733 cap
Utah State✈ 1,153 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Utah State,
while Game Control favors Texas A&M.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Utah State wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Texas A&M wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas A&M -34.5
O/U 57.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Texas A&M
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Utah State 2025 Schedule
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Utah State vs UTEP | -3.5W28–16 | 59.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Utah State at Texas A&M | +34.5L22–44 | 57.5 | L22–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Utah State vs Air Force | +4.0W49–30 | 51.5 | W49–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Utah State vs McNeese | -23.5W48–7 | 63.0 | W48–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Utah State at Vanderbilt | +23.5L35–55 | 57.5 | L35–55 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Utah State at Hawai'i | -1.5L26–44 | 57.5 | L26–44 | O | N |
| Fri 10/17 | Utah State vs San José State | -3.0W30–25 | 63.5 | W30–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Utah State at New Mexico | +3.0L14–33 | 61.5 | L14–33 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Utah State vs Nevada | -10.0W51–14 | 52.5 | W51–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Utah State at UNLV | +4.5L26–29 | 68.5 | L26–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Utah State at Fresno State | +1.5W28–17 | 50.5 | W28–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | Utah State vs Boise State | +1.5L24–25 | 54.5 | L24–25 | U | Y |
| Mon 12/22 | Utah State vs Washington State | -1.0L21–34 | 50.0 | L21–34 | O | N |
Texas A&M 2025 Schedule
Texas A&M's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Texas A&M vs UTSA | -21.5W42–24 | 56.5 | W42–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Texas A&M vs Utah State | -34.5W44–22 | 57.5 | W44–22 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Texas A&M at Notre Dame | +7.5W41–40 | 48.5 | W41–40 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Texas A&M vs Auburn | -6.5W16–10 | 51.5 | W16–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Texas A&M vs Mississippi State | -17.5W31–9 | 57.5 | W31–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Texas A&M vs Florida | -7.0W34–17 | 47.5 | W34–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Texas A&M at Arkansas | -7.5W45–42 | 57.5 | W45–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Texas A&M at LSU | -1.5W49–25 | 50.5 | W49–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Texas A&M at Missouri | -7.0W38–17 | 48.5 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Texas A&M vs South Carolina | -16.5W31–30 | 49.5 | W31–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Texas A&M vs Samford | -54.5W48–0 | 59.5 | W48–0 | U | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Texas A&M at Texas | -2.5L17–27 | 54.5 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 12/20 | Texas A&M vs Miami | -3.0L3–10 | 48.5 | L3–10 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas A&M
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Utah State Edge
Utah State +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas A&M Edge
Texas A&M +7.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas A&M
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas A&M
90.7 — 4.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas A&M won by 22
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Utah State
Bronco Mendenhall #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Kevin McGiven
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nick Howell
Yr 1
#1
Texas A&M
Mike Elko #1
8–4 (67%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Collin Klein
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jay Bateman
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓