Coastal Carolina at Louisiana Tech Week 1 College Football Matchup Coastal Carolina at Louisiana Tech Matchup - Week 1
Tue, Dec 30 2025 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Independence Stadium Shreveport, FL · Turf · 49,565 cap
Coastal Carolina✈ 859 mi-1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
14 23
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Coastal Carolina
22
CCU +10
Louisiana Tech
30
P&R Line Louisiana Tech -8.5
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Louisiana Tech -10.0 · O/U 51.0
Matchup Prediction
Louisiana Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Louisiana Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Louisiana Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Louisiana Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Tech -10.0
O/U 51.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisiana Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Coastal Carolina 2025 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Coastal Carolina at Virginia+12.5L7–4857.5L7–48UN
Sat 9/6Coastal Carolina vs Charleston Southern-28.5W13–049.0W13–0UN
Sat 9/13Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina+7.0L0–3858.0L0–38UN
Sat 9/20Coastal Carolina at South Alabama+14.5W38–2051.5W38–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion+18.5L7–4753.5L7–47ON
Sat 10/11Coastal Carolina vs UL Monroe+3.0W23–846.5W23–8UY
Sat 10/18Coastal Carolina at App State+10.5W45–3748.5W45–37OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/30Coastal Carolina vs Marshall+7.5W44–2755.5W44–27OY
Sat 11/8Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State-7.0W40–2756.5W40–27OY
Sat 11/15Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern+3.0L40–4559.5L40–45ON
Sat 11/22Coastal Carolina at South Carolina+24.0L7–5150.0L7–51ON
Sat 11/29Coastal Carolina vs James Madison+24.0L10–5954.5L10–59ON
Tue 12/30Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech+10.0L14–2351.0L14–23UY
Louisiana Tech 2025 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana-14.5W24–050.5W24–0UY
Sat 9/6Louisiana Tech at LSU+36.5L7–2349.5L7–23UY
Sat 9/13Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-10.0W49–1442.5W49–14OY
Sat 9/20Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss-3.0W30–2051.5W30–20UY
Sat 9/27Louisiana Tech at UTEP-3.5W30–1148.5W30–11UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State-4.5L7–3546.5L7–35UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/21Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky-5.5L27–2849.5L27–28ON
Fri 10/31Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-16.5W55–1448.0W55–14OY
Sat 11/8Louisiana Tech at Delaware-5.5L24–2557.5L24–25UN
Sat 11/15Louisiana Tech at Washington State+10.0L3–2843.5L3–28UN
Sat 11/22Louisiana Tech vs Liberty+1.5W34–2845.5W34–28OY
Sat 11/29Louisiana Tech at Missouri State+2.5W42–3045.0W42–30OY
Tue 12/30Louisiana Tech vs Coastal Carolina-10.0W23–1451.0W23–14UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Louisiana Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Coastal Carolina #113
+0.158
Louisiana Tech #89
+0.330
Louisiana Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #116
+0.287
Louisiana Tech #100
+0.497
Louisiana Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #75
0.153
Louisiana Tech #10
0.195
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisiana Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Coastal Carolina #58
+6.875
Louisiana Tech #109
+6.926
Louisiana Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina #119
+0.748
Louisiana Tech #102
+0.828
Louisiana Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Coastal Carolina #46
69.9
Louisiana Tech #64
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Coastal Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Louisiana Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Louisiana Tech
-4.9
Offense Rating
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Louisiana Tech
13.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Louisiana Tech
18.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Coastal Carolina #119
0.82
Louisiana Tech #111
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #129
1.82
Louisiana Tech #82
1.27
Louisiana Tech +0.18
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Coastal Carolina #1
33.1
Louisiana Tech #1
51.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Coastal Carolina #118
58.7
Louisiana Tech #51
34.1
Louisiana Tech +18.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisiana Tech
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Coastal Carolina
38.2 — 38.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Louisiana Tech won by 9
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Louisiana Tech with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
14–11 (56%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Tim Beck* Yr 1 #1
DC Craig Naivar Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
11–25 (31%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tony Franklin Yr 1 #1
DC Jeremiah Johnson Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself