Sat, Sep 20 2025
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Joe Aillet Stadium
Ruston, LA
·
Turf
·
28,019 cap
Southern Miss✈ 211 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Louisiana Tech,
while Game Control favors Southern Miss.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
71.6%
Louisiana Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
49.4%
Southern Miss wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Tech -3
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Southern Miss 2025 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Southern Miss vs Mississippi State | +11.5L17–34 | 59.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Southern Miss vs Jackson State | -13.5W38–20 | 53.0 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Southern Miss vs App State | +3.0W38–22 | 55.5 | W38–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech | +3.0L20–30 | 51.5 | L20–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State | -4.5W42–25 | 55.5 | W42–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/9 | Southern Miss at Georgia Southern | -3.0W38–35 | 59.5 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Southern Miss at Louisiana | -4.5W22–10 | 54.5 | W22–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Southern Miss vs UL Monroe | -14.0W49–21 | 48.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Southern Miss at Arkansas State | -6.5W27–21 | 54.5 | W27–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Southern Miss vs Texas State | -3.0L14–41 | 65.5 | L14–41 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Southern Miss at South Alabama | -2.5L35–42 | 53.0 | L35–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Southern Miss vs Troy | -6.5L18–28 | 50.5 | L18–28 | U | N |
| Tue 12/23 | Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky | -3.0L16–27 | 59.0 | L16–27 | U | N |
Louisiana Tech 2025 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana | -14.5W24–0 | 50.5 | W24–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Louisiana Tech at LSU | +36.5L7–23 | 49.5 | L7–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State | -10.0W49–14 | 42.5 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss | -3.0W30–20 | 51.5 | W30–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Louisiana Tech at UTEP | -3.5W30–11 | 48.5 | W30–11 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/9 | Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State | -4.5L7–35 | 46.5 | L7–35 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/21 | Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky | -5.5L27–28 | 49.5 | L27–28 | O | N |
| Fri 10/31 | Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston | -16.5W55–14 | 48.0 | W55–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Louisiana Tech at Delaware | -5.5L24–25 | 57.5 | L24–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Louisiana Tech at Washington State | +10.0L3–28 | 43.5 | L3–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Louisiana Tech vs Liberty | +1.5W34–28 | 45.5 | W34–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Louisiana Tech at Missouri State | +2.5W42–30 | 45.0 | W42–30 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/30 | Louisiana Tech vs Coastal Carolina | -10.0W23–14 | 51.0 | W23–14 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisiana Tech Edge
Louisiana Tech +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Southern Miss Edge
Southern Miss +2.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Southern Miss
Charles Huff #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Blake Anderson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jason Semore
Yr 1
#1
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
11–25 (31%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Tony Franklin
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jeremiah Johnson
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓