Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State Week 7 College Football Matchup Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State Matchup - Week 7
Thu, Oct 9 2025 · Week 7 · 🏟 Fifth Third Bank Stadium Kennesaw, GA · Turf · 8,318 cap
Louisiana Tech✈ 478 mi+1 hr TZ
7 35
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Louisiana Tech
22
KENN +4.5
Kennesaw State
26
P&R Line Kennesaw State -4.5
P&R Total O/U 47.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Louisiana Tech -4.5 · O/U 46.5
Matchup Prediction
Louisiana Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Louisiana Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Louisiana Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Louisiana Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Tech -4.5
O/U 46.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisiana Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Kennesaw State Coming off BYE 🛋 Louisiana Tech Coming off BYE
Louisiana Tech 2025 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana-14.5W24–050.5W24–0UY
Sat 9/6Louisiana Tech at LSU+36.5L7–2349.5L7–23UY
Sat 9/13Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-10.0W49–1442.5W49–14OY
Sat 9/20Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss-3.0W30–2051.5W30–20UY
Sat 9/27Louisiana Tech at UTEP-3.5W30–1148.5W30–11UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State-4.5L7–3546.5L7–35UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/21Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky-5.5L27–2849.5L27–28ON
Fri 10/31Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-16.5W55–1448.0W55–14OY
Sat 11/8Louisiana Tech at Delaware-5.5L24–2557.5L24–25UN
Sat 11/15Louisiana Tech at Washington State+10.0L3–2843.5L3–28UN
Sat 11/22Louisiana Tech vs Liberty+1.5W34–2845.5W34–28OY
Sat 11/29Louisiana Tech at Missouri State+2.5W42–3045.0W42–30OY
Tue 12/30Louisiana Tech vs Coastal Carolina-10.0W23–1451.0W23–14UN
Kennesaw State 2025 Schedule
Kennesaw State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Kennesaw State at Wake Forest+17.5L9–1051.5L9–10UY
Sat 9/6Kennesaw State at Indiana+35.5L9–5651.5L9–56ON
Sat 9/13Kennesaw State vs Merrimack-17.5W27–1344.5W27–13UN
Sat 9/20Kennesaw State vs Arkansas State+4.5W28–2157.5W28–21UY
Sat 9/27Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee-7.0W24–1654.5W24–16UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9Kennesaw State vs Louisiana Tech+4.5W35–746.5W35–7UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/21Kennesaw State at Florida International-3.0W45–2648.5W45–26OY
Tue 10/28Kennesaw State vs UTEP-12.5W33–2053.5W33–20UY
Sat 11/8Kennesaw State at New Mexico State-11.5W24–2152.5W24–21UN
Sat 11/15Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State-3.5L26–3556.5L26–35ON
Sat 11/22Kennesaw State vs Missouri State-6.5W41–3454.0W41–34OY
Sat 11/29Kennesaw State at Liberty-2.5W48–4255.5W48–42OY
Fri 12/5Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State-3.0W19–1562.5W19–15UY
Fri 12/19Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan+3.0L6–4147.0L6–41UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Louisiana Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Louisiana Tech #89
+0.296
Kennesaw State #74
+0.237
Louisiana Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #100
+0.383
Kennesaw State #44
+0.470
Kennesaw State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #10
0.195
Kennesaw State #45
0.168
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisiana Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #109
+6.889
Kennesaw State #126
+6.021
Louisiana Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #102
+0.820
Kennesaw State #87
+0.792
Louisiana Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #64
70.9
Kennesaw State #68
71.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Louisiana Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kennesaw State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Louisiana Tech
-4.9
Kennesaw State
-4.2
Offense Rating
Louisiana Tech
13.5
Kennesaw State
11.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Louisiana Tech
18.4
Kennesaw State
15.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Louisiana Tech #111
1.00
Kennesaw State #52
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #82
1.00
Kennesaw State #124
1.50
Louisiana Tech +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Louisiana Tech #1
65.7
Kennesaw State #1
55.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #51
22.4
Kennesaw State #46
36.0
Louisiana Tech +10.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kennesaw State
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kennesaw State
52.3 — 34.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Kennesaw State won by 28
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Louisiana Tech. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
11–25 (31%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tony Franklin Yr 1 #1
DC Jeremiah Johnson Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kennesaw State
Jerry Mack #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mitch Militello Yr 1 #1
DC Marc Mattioli Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself