Louisiana Tech at LSU Week 2 College Football Matchup Louisiana Tech at LSU Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 6 2025 · Week 2 · 🏟 Tiger Stadium Baton Rouge, LA · Turf · 102,321 cap
Louisiana Tech✈ 170 miSame TZ
7 23
Final
LSU
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Louisiana Tech
12
LSU
36
P&R Line LSU -23.5
P&R Total O/U 47.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas LSU -36.5 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Louisiana Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
LSU -36.5
O/U 49.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisiana Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Louisiana Tech 2025 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana-14.5W24–050.5W24–0UY
Sat 9/6Louisiana Tech at LSU+36.5L7–2349.5L7–23UY
Sat 9/13Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-10.0W49–1442.5W49–14OY
Sat 9/20Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss-3.0W30–2051.5W30–20UY
Sat 9/27Louisiana Tech at UTEP-3.5W30–1148.5W30–11UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State-4.5L7–3546.5L7–35UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/21Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky-5.5L27–2849.5L27–28ON
Fri 10/31Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-16.5W55–1448.0W55–14OY
Sat 11/8Louisiana Tech at Delaware-5.5L24–2557.5L24–25UN
Sat 11/15Louisiana Tech at Washington State+10.0L3–2843.5L3–28UN
Sat 11/22Louisiana Tech vs Liberty+1.5W34–2845.5W34–28OY
Sat 11/29Louisiana Tech at Missouri State+2.5W42–3045.0W42–30OY
Tue 12/30Louisiana Tech vs Coastal Carolina-10.0W23–1451.0W23–14UN
LSU 2025 Schedule
LSU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30LSU at Clemson+3.5W17–1057.5W17–10UY
Sat 9/6LSU vs Louisiana Tech-36.5W23–749.5W23–7UN
Sat 9/13LSU vs Florida-5.5W20–1047.5W20–10UY
Sat 9/20LSU vs SE Louisiana-49.0W56–1060.0W56–10ON
Sat 9/27LSU at Ole Miss+2.5L19–2457.5L19–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11LSU vs South Carolina-8.5W20–1044.5W20–10UY
Sat 10/18LSU at Vanderbilt+1.5L24–3148.5L24–31ON
Sat 10/25LSU vs Texas A&M+1.5L25–4950.5L25–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8LSU at Alabama+10.5L9–2049.5L9–20UN
Sat 11/15LSU vs Arkansas-4.0W23–2258.5W23–22UN
Sat 11/22LSU vs Western Kentucky-24.5W13–1052.0W13–10UN
Sat 11/29LSU at Oklahoma+11.5L13–1736.5L13–17UY
Sat 12/27LSU vs Houston+1.5L35–3843.5L35–38ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Louisiana Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Louisiana Tech #89
+0.221
LSU #121
+0.130
Louisiana Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #100
+0.372
LSU #105
+0.327
Louisiana Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #10
0.195
LSU #40
0.170
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisiana Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #109
+6.569
LSU #104
+6.429
Louisiana Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #102
+0.787
LSU #108
+0.768
Louisiana Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #64
70.9
LSU #52
70.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
LSU Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
LSU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Louisiana Tech
-5.0
LSU
17.0
Offense Rating
Louisiana Tech
13.5
LSU
24.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Louisiana Tech
18.4
LSU
7.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Louisiana Tech #111
0.00
LSU #92
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #82
0.00
LSU #6
0.00
Louisiana Tech +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Louisiana Tech #1
60.3
LSU #1
31.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #51
10.7
LSU #64
43.2
Louisiana Tech +28.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
LSU
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
LSU
83.9 — 6.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
LSU won by 16
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
11–25 (31%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tony Franklin Yr 1 #1
DC Jeremiah Johnson Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
LSU
Brian Kelly #1
28–11 (72%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Joe Sloan Yr 2 #1
DC Blake Baker Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself