Louisiana Tech at Missouri State Week 14 College Football Matchup Louisiana Tech at Missouri State Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 29 2025 · Week 14 · 🏟 Plaster Sports Complex Springfield, MO · Turf · 17,500 cap
Louisiana Tech✈ 324 miSame TZ
42 30
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Louisiana Tech
23
LT +2.5
Missouri State
24
P&R Line Missouri State -0.5
P&R Total O/U 47.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Missouri State -2.5 · O/U 45.0
Matchup Prediction
Louisiana Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Louisiana Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Louisiana Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Louisiana Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Missouri State -2.5
O/U 45.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisiana Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Louisiana Tech 2025 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana-14.5W24–050.5W24–0UY
Sat 9/6Louisiana Tech at LSU+36.5L7–2349.5L7–23UY
Sat 9/13Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-10.0W49–1442.5W49–14OY
Sat 9/20Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss-3.0W30–2051.5W30–20UY
Sat 9/27Louisiana Tech at UTEP-3.5W30–1148.5W30–11UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State-4.5L7–3546.5L7–35UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/21Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky-5.5L27–2849.5L27–28ON
Fri 10/31Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-16.5W55–1448.0W55–14OY
Sat 11/8Louisiana Tech at Delaware-5.5L24–2557.5L24–25UN
Sat 11/15Louisiana Tech at Washington State+10.0L3–2843.5L3–28UN
Sat 11/22Louisiana Tech vs Liberty+1.5W34–2845.5W34–28OY
Sat 11/29Louisiana Tech at Missouri State+2.5W42–3045.0W42–30OY
Tue 12/30Louisiana Tech vs Coastal Carolina-10.0W23–1451.0W23–14UN
Missouri State 2025 Schedule
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Missouri State at USC+34.5L13–7359.5L13–73ON
Sat 9/6Missouri State at Marshall+7.0W21–2053.5W21–20UY
Sat 9/13Missouri State vs SMU+29.5L10–2860.5L10–28UY
Sat 9/20Missouri State vs UT Martin-14.0W42–1055.5W42–10UY
Sat 9/27Missouri State vs Western Kentucky+3.5L22–2759.5L22–27UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/8Missouri State at Middle Tennessee-2.5W22–2052.5W22–20UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/22Missouri State at New Mexico State-2.5W24–1751.5W24–17UY
Wed 10/29Missouri State vs Florida International-3.0W28–2150.0W28–21UY
Sat 11/8Missouri State at Liberty+7.5W21–1751.5W21–17UY
Sat 11/15Missouri State vs UTEP-6.5W38–2447.5W38–24OY
Sat 11/22Missouri State at Kennesaw State+6.5L34–4154.0L34–41ON
Sat 11/29Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech-2.5L30–4245.0L30–42ON
Thu 12/18Missouri State vs Arkansas State+1.5L28–3455.5L28–34ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Louisiana Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Louisiana Tech #89
+0.371
Missouri State #69
+0.243
Louisiana Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #100
+0.525
Missouri State #41
+0.480
Louisiana Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #10
0.195
Missouri State #83
0.150
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisiana Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #109
+7.211
Missouri State #68
+6.769
Louisiana Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #102
+0.826
Missouri State #105
+0.772
Louisiana Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #64
70.9
Missouri State #54
70.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Missouri State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Louisiana Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Louisiana Tech
-4.9
Missouri State
-8.9
Offense Rating
Louisiana Tech
13.5
Missouri State
11.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Louisiana Tech
18.4
Missouri State
20.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Louisiana Tech #111
1.00
Missouri State #96
0.80
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #82
1.30
Missouri State #132
1.60
Louisiana Tech +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Louisiana Tech #1
49.4
Missouri State #1
42.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #51
36.2
Missouri State #89
38.1
Louisiana Tech +7.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Louisiana Tech
11.1 — 77.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Louisiana Tech won by 12
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Louisiana Tech. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
11–25 (31%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tony Franklin Yr 1 #1
DC Jeremiah Johnson Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Missouri State
Ryan Beard #1
12–11 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Nick Petrino Yr 2 #1
DC L.D. Scott Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself