Liberty at Jacksonville State Week 2 College Football Matchup Liberty at Jacksonville State Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 6 2025 · Week 2 · 🏟 JSU Stadium Jacksonville, AL · Turf · 24,000 cap
Liberty✈ 443 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
24 34
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Liberty
27
JVST +6
Jacksonville State
25
P&R Line Liberty -2
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Liberty -6.0 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Liberty wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Liberty -6.0
O/U 50.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Liberty 2025 Schedule
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Liberty vs Maine-25.5W28–751.0W28–7UN
Sat 9/6Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.0L24–3450.5L24–34ON
Sat 9/13Liberty at Bowling Green-6.0L13–2351.5L13–23UN
Sat 9/20Liberty vs James Madison+7.5L13–3146.5L13–31UN
Sat 9/27Liberty at Old Dominion+14.5L7–2153.5L7–21UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/8Liberty at UTEP-1.5W19–846.5W19–8UY
Tue 10/14Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.5W30–2748.5W30–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Liberty vs Delaware-3.5W59–3052.5W59–30OY
Sat 11/8Liberty vs Missouri State-7.5L17–2151.5L17–21UN
Sat 11/15Liberty at Florida International-2.5L27–3451.5L27–34ON
Sat 11/22Liberty at Louisiana Tech-1.5L28–3445.5L28–34ON
Sat 11/29Liberty vs Kennesaw State+2.5L42–4855.5L42–48ON
Jacksonville State 2025 Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Jacksonville State at UCF+16.5L10–1753.5L10–17UY
Sat 9/6Jacksonville State vs Liberty+6.0W34–2450.5W34–24OY
Sat 9/13Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern+3.0L34–4159.0L34–41ON
Sat 9/20Jacksonville State vs Murray State-35.5W45–1060.5W45–10UN
Sat 9/27Jacksonville State at Southern Miss+4.5L25–4255.5L25–42ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston-7.0W29–2753.5W29–27ON
Wed 10/15Jacksonville State vs Delaware+3.0W38–2555.5W38–25OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/29Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee-4.5W24–2154.0W24–21UN
Sat 11/8Jacksonville State at UTEP-1.5W30–2746.5W30–27OY
Sat 11/15Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State+3.5W35–2656.5W35–26OY
Sat 11/22Jacksonville State at Florida International+2.5L21–2755.5L21–27UN
Sat 11/29Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky+1.5W37–3456.5W37–34OY
Fri 12/5Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State+3.0L15–1962.5L15–19UN
Tue 12/16Jacksonville State vs Troy-3.0W17–1347.5W17–13UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Jacksonville State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Liberty #75
+0.327
Jacksonville State #61
+0.392
Jacksonville State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #87
+0.453
Jacksonville State #102
+0.433
Liberty Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Liberty #116
0.132
Jacksonville State #40
0.170
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Jacksonville State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #71
+7.461
Jacksonville State #65
+7.285
Liberty Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Liberty #49
+0.860
Jacksonville State #52
+0.855
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Liberty #64
70.9
Jacksonville State #80
71.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Liberty Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Jacksonville State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Liberty
-2.9
Jacksonville State
-2.7
Offense Rating
Liberty
15.1
Jacksonville State
14.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Liberty
18.0
Jacksonville State
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Liberty Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Liberty #30
0.00
Jacksonville State #60
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #34
0.00
Jacksonville State #28
0.00
Liberty +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Liberty Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Liberty #1
37.9
Jacksonville State #1
20.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #76
25.2
Jacksonville State #54
27.7
Liberty +17.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Jacksonville State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Jacksonville State
83.1 — 8.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Jacksonville State won by 10
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
21–4 (84%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 3 #1
DC Skylor Magee Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Jacksonville State
Charles Kelly #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Clint Trickett Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Williams Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself