Liberty at Old Dominion Week 5 College Football Matchup Liberty at Old Dominion Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 27 2025 · Week 5 · 🏟 Foreman Field Norfolk, VA · Turf · 20,118 cap
Liberty✈ 161 miSame TZ
Away
7 21
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Liberty
22
LIB +14.5
Old Dominion
30
P&R Line Old Dominion -8
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Old Dominion -14.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Old Dominion has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Old Dominion entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Old Dominion wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Old Dominion wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Old Dominion -14.5
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Old Dominion · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Old Dominion Coming off BYE
Liberty 2025 Schedule
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Liberty vs Maine-25.5W28–751.0W28–7UN
Sat 9/6Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.0L24–3450.5L24–34ON
Sat 9/13Liberty at Bowling Green-6.0L13–2351.5L13–23UN
Sat 9/20Liberty vs James Madison+7.5L13–3146.5L13–31UN
Sat 9/27Liberty at Old Dominion+14.5L7–2153.5L7–21UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/8Liberty at UTEP-1.5W19–846.5W19–8UY
Tue 10/14Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.5W30–2748.5W30–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Liberty vs Delaware-3.5W59–3052.5W59–30OY
Sat 11/8Liberty vs Missouri State-7.5L17–2151.5L17–21UN
Sat 11/15Liberty at Florida International-2.5L27–3451.5L27–34ON
Sat 11/22Liberty at Louisiana Tech-1.5L28–3445.5L28–34ON
Sat 11/29Liberty vs Kennesaw State+2.5L42–4855.5L42–48ON
Old Dominion 2025 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Old Dominion at Indiana+23.5L14–2754.5L14–27UY
Sat 9/6Old Dominion vs North Carolina Central-22.0W54–650.5W54–6OY
Sat 9/13Old Dominion at Virginia Tech+5.5W45–2650.5W45–26OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Old Dominion vs Liberty-14.5W21–753.5W21–7UN
Sat 10/4Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina-18.5W47–753.5W47–7OY
Sat 10/11Old Dominion at Marshall-14.5L24–4857.5L24–48ON
Sat 10/18Old Dominion at James Madison+3.0L27–6347.5L27–63ON
Sat 10/25Old Dominion vs App State-12.5W24–2160.5W24–21UN
Sat 11/1Old Dominion at UL Monroe-16.5W31–655.5W31–6UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/13Old Dominion vs Troy-9.5W33–053.5W33–0UY
Sat 11/22Old Dominion at Georgia Southern-10.0W45–1062.0W45–10UY
Sat 11/29Old Dominion vs Georgia State-29.0W27–1058.5W27–10UN
Wed 12/17Old Dominion vs South Florida+4.0W24–1052.5W24–10UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Old Dominion PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Old Dominion
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Liberty #75
+0.196
Old Dominion #27
+0.453
Old Dominion Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #87
+0.300
Old Dominion #18
+0.661
Old Dominion Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Liberty #116
0.132
Old Dominion #17
0.186
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Old Dominion Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #71
+6.706
Old Dominion #48
+7.493
Old Dominion Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Liberty #49
+0.832
Old Dominion #31
+0.877
Old Dominion Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Liberty #64
70.9
Old Dominion #39
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Old Dominion Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Old Dominion Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Liberty
-2.9
Old Dominion
-0.6
Offense Rating
Liberty
15.1
Old Dominion
13.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Liberty
18.0
Old Dominion
14.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Old Dominion Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Liberty #30
0.00
Old Dominion #27
1.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #34
1.33
Old Dominion #21
0.50
Old Dominion +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Old Dominion Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Liberty #1
18.4
Old Dominion #1
59.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #76
59.1
Old Dominion #17
32.6
Old Dominion +40.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Old Dominion
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Old Dominion
77.4 — 8.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Old Dominion won by 14
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Old Dominion with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
21–4 (84%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 3 #1
DC Skylor Magee Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
20–30 (40%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Kevin Decker Yr 3 #1
DC Blake Seiler Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself