Liberty at Florida International Week 12 College Football Matchup Liberty at Florida International Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 15 2025 · Week 12 · 🏟 Pitbull Stadium Miami, FL · Turf · 23,500 cap
Liberty✈ 804 miSame TZ
Away
27 34
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Liberty
27
Florida International
25
P&R Line Liberty -2
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Liberty -2.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Florida International, while Game Control favors Liberty. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Florida International wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Liberty wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Liberty -2.5
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Florida International · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Liberty 2025 Schedule
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Liberty vs Maine-25.5W28–751.0W28–7UN
Sat 9/6Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.0L24–3450.5L24–34ON
Sat 9/13Liberty at Bowling Green-6.0L13–2351.5L13–23UN
Sat 9/20Liberty vs James Madison+7.5L13–3146.5L13–31UN
Sat 9/27Liberty at Old Dominion+14.5L7–2153.5L7–21UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/8Liberty at UTEP-1.5W19–846.5W19–8UY
Tue 10/14Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.5W30–2748.5W30–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Liberty vs Delaware-3.5W59–3052.5W59–30OY
Sat 11/8Liberty vs Missouri State-7.5L17–2151.5L17–21UN
Sat 11/15Liberty at Florida International-2.5L27–3451.5L27–34ON
Sat 11/22Liberty at Louisiana Tech-1.5L28–3445.5L28–34ON
Sat 11/29Liberty vs Kennesaw State+2.5L42–4855.5L42–48ON
Florida International 2025 Schedule
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Florida International PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida International
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Liberty #75
+0.334
Florida International #81
+0.364
Florida International Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #87
+0.478
Florida International #89
+0.457
Liberty Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Liberty #116
0.132
Florida International #54
0.164
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Florida International Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #71
+7.332
Florida International #35
+7.672
Florida International Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Liberty #49
+0.865
Florida International #93
+0.824
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Liberty #64
70.9
Florida International #46
69.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Florida International Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Liberty Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Liberty
-2.9
Florida International
-4.1
Offense Rating
Liberty
14.1
Florida International
11.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Liberty
17.0
Florida International
15.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Florida International Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Liberty #30
0.88
Florida International #77
1.38
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #34
1.00
Florida International #107
1.38
Florida International +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Liberty Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Liberty #1
41.7
Florida International #1
37.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #76
40.7
Florida International #94
50.1
Liberty +4.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida International
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Florida International
44.5 — 28.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Florida International won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
21–4 (84%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 3 #1
DC Skylor Magee Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Florida International
Willie Simmons #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Nick Coleman Yr 1 #1
DC Jovan Dewitt Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself