Sat, Nov 15 2025
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Pitbull Stadium
Miami, FL
·
Turf
·
23,500 cap
Liberty✈ 804 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Florida International,
while Game Control favors Liberty.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Florida International wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Liberty wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Liberty -2.5
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Florida International
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Liberty 2025 Schedule
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Liberty vs Maine | -25.5W28–7 | 51.0 | W28–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Liberty at Jacksonville State | -6.0L24–34 | 50.5 | L24–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Liberty at Bowling Green | -6.0L13–23 | 51.5 | L13–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Liberty vs James Madison | +7.5L13–31 | 46.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Liberty at Old Dominion | +14.5L7–21 | 53.5 | L7–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/8 | Liberty at UTEP | -1.5W19–8 | 46.5 | W19–8 | U | Y |
| Tue 10/14 | Liberty vs New Mexico State | -10.5W30–27 | 48.5 | W30–27 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Liberty vs Delaware | -3.5W59–30 | 52.5 | W59–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Liberty vs Missouri State | -7.5L17–21 | 51.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Liberty at Florida International | -2.5L27–34 | 51.5 | L27–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Liberty at Louisiana Tech | -1.5L28–34 | 45.5 | L28–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Liberty vs Kennesaw State | +2.5L42–48 | 55.5 | L42–48 | O | N |
Florida International 2025 Schedule
Florida International's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Florida International vs Bethune-Cookman | -26.5W42–9 | 54.5 | W42–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Florida International at Penn State | +42.0L0–34 | 53.5 | L0–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Florida International vs Florida Atlantic | -2.0W38–28 | 56.5 | W38–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Florida International vs Delaware | -4.0L16–38 | 54.5 | L16–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Florida International at UConn | +7.0L10–51 | 52.5 | L10–51 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/14 | Florida International at Western Kentucky | +9.5W25–6 | 55.5 | W25–6 | U | Y |
| Tue 10/21 | Florida International vs Kennesaw State | +3.0L26–45 | 48.5 | L26–45 | O | N |
| Wed 10/29 | Florida International at Missouri State | +3.0L21–28 | 50.0 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Florida International at Middle Tennessee | +1.5W56–30 | 50.5 | W56–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Florida International vs Liberty | +2.5W34–27 | 51.5 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Florida International vs Jacksonville State | -2.5W27–21 | 55.5 | W27–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Florida International vs Sam Houston | -10.5W56–16 | 50.5 | W56–16 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/26 | Florida International vs UTSA | +7.0L20–57 | 62.5 | L20–57 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida International
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida International Edge
Florida International +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Liberty Edge
Liberty +4.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida International
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Florida International
44.5 — 28.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Florida International won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
21–4 (84%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Newland Isaac
Yr 3
#1
DC
Skylor Magee
Yr 1
#1
Florida International
Willie Simmons #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Nick Coleman
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jovan Dewitt
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

