Missouri State at Liberty Week 11 College Football Matchup Missouri State at Liberty Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 8 2025 · Week 11 · 🏟 Williams Stadium Lynchburg, VA · Turf · 19,200 cap
Missouri State✈ 774 mi+1 hr TZ
21 17
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Missouri State
24
Liberty
29
P&R Line Liberty -5
P&R Total O/U 53
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Liberty -7.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Liberty, while Game Control favors Missouri State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Liberty wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Missouri State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Liberty -7.5
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Liberty · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Liberty 3rd straight Home Game
Missouri State 2025 Schedule
Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Missouri State at USC+34.5L13–7359.5L13–73ON
Sat 9/6Missouri State at Marshall+7.0W21–2053.5W21–20UY
Sat 9/13Missouri State vs SMU+29.5L10–2860.5L10–28UY
Sat 9/20Missouri State vs UT Martin-14.0W42–1055.5W42–10UY
Sat 9/27Missouri State vs Western Kentucky+3.5L22–2759.5L22–27UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/8Missouri State at Middle Tennessee-2.5W22–2052.5W22–20UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/22Missouri State at New Mexico State-2.5W24–1751.5W24–17UY
Wed 10/29Missouri State vs Florida International-3.0W28–2150.0W28–21UY
Sat 11/8Missouri State at Liberty+7.5W21–1751.5W21–17UY
Sat 11/15Missouri State vs UTEP-6.5W38–2447.5W38–24OY
Sat 11/22Missouri State at Kennesaw State+6.5L34–4154.0L34–41ON
Sat 11/29Missouri State vs Louisiana Tech-2.5L30–4245.0L30–42ON
Thu 12/18Missouri State vs Arkansas State+1.5L28–3455.5L28–34ON
Liberty 2025 Schedule
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Liberty vs Maine-25.5W28–751.0W28–7UN
Sat 9/6Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.0L24–3450.5L24–34ON
Sat 9/13Liberty at Bowling Green-6.0L13–2351.5L13–23UN
Sat 9/20Liberty vs James Madison+7.5L13–3146.5L13–31UN
Sat 9/27Liberty at Old Dominion+14.5L7–2153.5L7–21UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/8Liberty at UTEP-1.5W19–846.5W19–8UY
Tue 10/14Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.5W30–2748.5W30–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Liberty vs Delaware-3.5W59–3052.5W59–30OY
Sat 11/8Liberty vs Missouri State-7.5L17–2151.5L17–21UN
Sat 11/15Liberty at Florida International-2.5L27–3451.5L27–34ON
Sat 11/22Liberty at Louisiana Tech-1.5L28–3445.5L28–34ON
Sat 11/29Liberty vs Kennesaw State+2.5L42–4855.5L42–48ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Missouri State #69
+0.384
Liberty #75
+0.401
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Missouri State #41
+0.582
Liberty #87
+0.546
Missouri State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Missouri State #83
0.150
Liberty #116
0.132
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Missouri State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Missouri State #68
+7.246
Liberty #71
+7.569
Liberty Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Missouri State #105
+0.810
Liberty #49
+0.866
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Missouri State #54
70.5
Liberty #64
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Missouri State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Liberty Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Missouri State
-6.9
Liberty
-2.9
Offense Rating
Missouri State
12.8
Liberty
14.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Missouri State
19.7
Liberty
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Liberty Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Missouri State #96
0.43
Liberty #30
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Missouri State #132
1.86
Liberty #34
1.00
Liberty +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Missouri State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Missouri State #1
43.9
Liberty #1
37.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Missouri State #89
35.1
Liberty #76
43.9
Missouri State +6.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Missouri State
Ryan Beard #1
12–11 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Nick Petrino Yr 2 #1
DC L.D. Scott Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
21–4 (84%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 3 #1
DC Skylor Magee Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself