Kennesaw State at Liberty Week 14 College Football Matchup Kennesaw State at Liberty Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 29 2025 · Week 14 · 🏟 Williams Stadium Lynchburg, VA · Turf · 19,200 cap
Kennesaw State✈ 379 miSame TZ
48 42
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kennesaw State
27
Liberty
28
P&R Line Liberty -1
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Kennesaw State -2.5 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Kennesaw State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kennesaw State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kennesaw State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Kennesaw State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kennesaw State -2.5
O/U 55.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Kennesaw State 2025 Schedule
Kennesaw State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Kennesaw State at Wake Forest+17.5L9–1051.5L9–10UY
Sat 9/6Kennesaw State at Indiana+35.5L9–5651.5L9–56ON
Sat 9/13Kennesaw State vs Merrimack-17.5W27–1344.5W27–13UN
Sat 9/20Kennesaw State vs Arkansas State+4.5W28–2157.5W28–21UY
Sat 9/27Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee-7.0W24–1654.5W24–16UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9Kennesaw State vs Louisiana Tech+4.5W35–746.5W35–7UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/21Kennesaw State at Florida International-3.0W45–2648.5W45–26OY
Tue 10/28Kennesaw State vs UTEP-12.5W33–2053.5W33–20UY
Sat 11/8Kennesaw State at New Mexico State-11.5W24–2152.5W24–21UN
Sat 11/15Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State-3.5L26–3556.5L26–35ON
Sat 11/22Kennesaw State vs Missouri State-6.5W41–3454.0W41–34OY
Sat 11/29Kennesaw State at Liberty-2.5W48–4255.5W48–42OY
Fri 12/5Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State-3.0W19–1562.5W19–15UY
Fri 12/19Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan+3.0L6–4147.0L6–41UN
Liberty 2025 Schedule
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Liberty vs Maine-25.5W28–751.0W28–7UN
Sat 9/6Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.0L24–3450.5L24–34ON
Sat 9/13Liberty at Bowling Green-6.0L13–2351.5L13–23UN
Sat 9/20Liberty vs James Madison+7.5L13–3146.5L13–31UN
Sat 9/27Liberty at Old Dominion+14.5L7–2153.5L7–21UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/8Liberty at UTEP-1.5W19–846.5W19–8UY
Tue 10/14Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.5W30–2748.5W30–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Liberty vs Delaware-3.5W59–3052.5W59–30OY
Sat 11/8Liberty vs Missouri State-7.5L17–2151.5L17–21UN
Sat 11/15Liberty at Florida International-2.5L27–3451.5L27–34ON
Sat 11/22Liberty at Louisiana Tech-1.5L28–3445.5L28–34ON
Sat 11/29Liberty vs Kennesaw State+2.5L42–4855.5L42–48ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Kennesaw State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kennesaw State #74
+0.377
Liberty #75
+0.326
Kennesaw State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #44
+0.572
Liberty #87
+0.405
Kennesaw State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #45
0.168
Liberty #116
0.132
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kennesaw State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #126
+6.498
Liberty #71
+7.247
Liberty Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kennesaw State #87
+0.831
Liberty #49
+0.860
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kennesaw State #68
71.0
Liberty #64
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Liberty Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Liberty Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kennesaw State
-4.3
Liberty
-2.9
Offense Rating
Kennesaw State
11.8
Liberty
14.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kennesaw State
16.0
Liberty
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kennesaw State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kennesaw State #52
1.20
Liberty #30
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kennesaw State #124
1.10
Liberty #34
1.10
Kennesaw State +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kennesaw State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kennesaw State #1
59.2
Liberty #1
41.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kennesaw State #46
29.0
Liberty #76
39.8
Kennesaw State +17.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kennesaw State
24.7 — 45.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kennesaw State won by 6
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kennesaw State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kennesaw State
Jerry Mack #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mitch Militello Yr 1 #1
DC Marc Mattioli Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
21–4 (84%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 3 #1
DC Skylor Magee Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself