Liberty at Bowling Green Week 3 College Football Matchup Liberty at Bowling Green Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 13 2025 · Week 3 · 🏟 Doyt Perry Stadium Bowling Green, OH · Turf · 24,000 cap
Liberty✈ 365 miSame TZ
Away
13 23
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Liberty
29
Bowling Green
21
P&R Line Liberty -7.5
P&R Total O/U 50
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Liberty -6 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
76%
Bowling Green wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Liberty -6
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Liberty · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Liberty 2nd straight Road Game
Liberty 2025 Schedule
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Liberty vs Maine-25.5W28–751.0W28–7UN
Sat 9/6Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.0L24–3450.5L24–34ON
Sat 9/13Liberty at Bowling Green-6.0L13–2351.5L13–23UN
Sat 9/20Liberty vs James Madison+7.5L13–3146.5L13–31UN
Sat 9/27Liberty at Old Dominion+14.5L7–2153.5L7–21UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/8Liberty at UTEP-1.5W19–846.5W19–8UY
Tue 10/14Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.5W30–2748.5W30–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Liberty vs Delaware-3.5W59–3052.5W59–30OY
Sat 11/8Liberty vs Missouri State-7.5L17–2151.5L17–21UN
Sat 11/15Liberty at Florida International-2.5L27–3451.5L27–34ON
Sat 11/22Liberty at Louisiana Tech-1.5L28–3445.5L28–34ON
Sat 11/29Liberty vs Kennesaw State+2.5L42–4855.5L42–48ON
Bowling Green 2025 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28Bowling Green vs Lafayette-21.0W26–753.0W26–7UN
Sat 9/6Bowling Green at Cincinnati+21.5L20–3446.5L20–34OY
Sat 9/13Bowling Green vs Liberty+6.0W23–1351.5W23–13UY
Sat 9/20Bowling Green at Louisville+26.5L17–4050.5L17–40OY
Sat 9/27Bowling Green at Ohio+7.5L20–3549.5L20–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Bowling Green vs Toledo+10.5W28–2345.5W28–23OY
Sat 10/18Bowling Green vs Central Michigan-3.0L6–2743.5L6–27UN
Sat 10/25Bowling Green at Kent State-7.5L21–2447.5L21–24UN
Sat 11/1Bowling Green vs Buffalo-2.5L3–2844.5L3–28UN
Sat 11/8Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan+3.0L21–2749.5L21–27UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/18Bowling Green vs Akron-2.5L16–1947.5L16–19UN
Tue 11/25Bowling Green at Massachusetts-14.0W45–1444.5W45–14OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Liberty #75
+0.323
Bowling Green #128
+0.232
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #87
+0.489
Bowling Green #129
+0.315
Liberty Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Liberty #116
0.132
Bowling Green #12
0.190
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Bowling Green Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #71
+7.120
Bowling Green #118
+6.742
Liberty Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Liberty #49
+0.845
Bowling Green #128
+0.773
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Liberty #64
70.9
Bowling Green #27
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Bowling Green Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Liberty Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Liberty
-2.9
Bowling Green
-9.7
Offense Rating
Liberty
14.1
Bowling Green
10.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Liberty
17.0
Bowling Green
20.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Liberty #30
0.00
Bowling Green #114
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #34
1.00
Bowling Green #72
1.00
Liberty +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Bowling Green Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Liberty #1
23.0
Bowling Green #1
50.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #76
54.2
Bowling Green #111
46.6
Bowling Green +27.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Bowling Green
2 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
Bowling Green
80.3 — 9.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Bowling Green won by 10
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Bowling Green with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
21–4 (84%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 3 #1
DC Skylor Magee Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Bowling Green
Eddie George #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Greg Nosal Yr 3 #1
DC Steve Morrison Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself