TCU at Arizona State Week 5 College Football Matchup TCU at Arizona State Matchup - Week 5
Fri, Sep 26 2025 · Week 5 · 🏟 Sun Devil Stadium Tempe, AZ · Turf · 56,232 cap
TCU✈ 844 mi-2 hr TZ
Away
24 27
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
TCU
28
Arizona State
27
P&R Line TCU -1
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Arizona State -2.5 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
TCU has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor TCU entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
TCU wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
TCU wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Arizona State -2.5
O/U 54.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → TCU · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
TCU 2025 Schedule
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1TCU at North Carolina-3.0W48–1459.5W48–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/13TCU vs Abilene Christian-42.5W42–2160.5W42–21ON
Sat 9/20TCU vs SMU-6.5W35–2463.5W35–24UY
Fri 9/26TCU at Arizona State+2.5L24–2754.5L24–27UN
Sat 10/4TCU vs Colorado-13.5W35–2157.5W35–21UY
Sat 10/11TCU at Kansas State-3.0L28–4154.5L28–41ON
Sat 10/18TCU vs Baylor-3.5W42–3666.5W42–36OY
Sat 10/25TCU at West Virginia-16.5W23–1755.5W23–17UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8TCU vs Iowa State-7.5L17–2058.5L17–20UN
Sat 11/15TCU at BYU+3.0L13–4451.5L13–44ON
Sat 11/22TCU at Houston-1.5W17–1455.5W17–14UY
Sat 11/29TCU vs Cincinnati-3.0W45–2358.5W45–23OY
Tue 12/30TCU vs USC+4.5W30–2756.5W30–27OY
Arizona State 2025 Schedule
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.5W38–1952.5W38–19ON
Sat 9/6Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.0L20–2458.5L20–24UN
Sat 9/13Arizona State vs Texas State-18.5W34–1561.5W34–15UY
Sat 9/20Arizona State at Baylor+3.0W27–2460.5W27–24UY
Fri 9/26Arizona State vs TCU-2.5W27–2454.5W27–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Arizona State at Utah+9.5L10–4244.5L10–42ON
Sat 10/18Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.5W26–2252.5W26–22UY
Sat 10/25Arizona State vs Houston-7.0L16–2446.5L16–24UN
Sat 11/1Arizona State at Iowa State+7.5W24–1948.5W24–19UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.0W25–2346.5W25–23ON
Sat 11/22Arizona State at Colorado-7.0W42–1747.5W42–17OY
Fri 11/28Arizona State vs Arizona+2.0L7–2348.5L7–23UN
Wed 12/31Arizona State vs Duke+4.0L39–4249.5L39–42OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
TCU PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ TCU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
TCU #36
+0.315
Arizona State #91
+0.283
TCU Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
TCU #20
+0.579
Arizona State #68
+0.549
TCU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TCU #86
0.149
Arizona State #15
0.188
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arizona State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
TCU #34
+7.598
Arizona State #103
+6.861
TCU Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
TCU #48
+0.851
Arizona State #99
+0.805
TCU Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
TCU #48
70.0
Arizona State #106
72.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
TCU Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
TCU
6.6
Arizona State
7.3
Offense Rating
TCU
17.9
Arizona State
21.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
TCU
11.3
Arizona State
13.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? TCU Edge
Avg sequences created per game
TCU #36
1.50
Arizona State #32
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
TCU #33
0.00
Arizona State #58
0.33
TCU +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? TCU Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
TCU #1
79.5
Arizona State #1
58.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
TCU #27
10.4
Arizona State #71
25.8
TCU +21.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
TCU
19.1 — 56.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Arizona State won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on TCU with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
TCU
Sonny Dykes #1
26–13 (67%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Kendal Briles Yr 3 #1
DC Andy Avalos Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
14–11 (56%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Marcus Arroyo Yr 2 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself