Arizona State at Colorado Week 13 College Football Matchup Arizona State at Colorado Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 22 2025 · Week 13 · 🏟 Folsom Field Boulder, CO · Turf · 50,183 cap
Arizona State✈ 585 mi+1 hr TZ
42 17
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Arizona State
32
Colorado
18
P&R Line Arizona State -14
P&R Total O/U 49
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Arizona State -7 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Arizona State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Arizona State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arizona State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Arizona State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arizona State -7
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arizona State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Colorado Coming off BYE
Arizona State 2025 Schedule
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.5W38–1952.5W38–19ON
Sat 9/6Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.0L20–2458.5L20–24UN
Sat 9/13Arizona State vs Texas State-18.5W34–1561.5W34–15UY
Sat 9/20Arizona State at Baylor+3.0W27–2460.5W27–24UY
Fri 9/26Arizona State vs TCU-2.5W27–2454.5W27–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Arizona State at Utah+9.5L10–4244.5L10–42ON
Sat 10/18Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.5W26–2252.5W26–22UY
Sat 10/25Arizona State vs Houston-7.0L16–2446.5L16–24UN
Sat 11/1Arizona State at Iowa State+7.5W24–1948.5W24–19UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.0W25–2346.5W25–23ON
Sat 11/22Arizona State at Colorado-7.0W42–1747.5W42–17OY
Fri 11/28Arizona State vs Arizona+2.0L7–2348.5L7–23UN
Wed 12/31Arizona State vs Duke+4.0L39–4249.5L39–42OY
Colorado 2025 Schedule
Colorado's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Colorado vs Georgia Tech+4.0L20–2755.5L20–27UN
Sat 9/6Colorado vs Delaware-23.5W31–749.5W31–7UY
Fri 9/12Colorado at Houston+4.0L20–3645.5L20–36ON
Sat 9/20Colorado vs Wyoming-12.5W37–2045.5W37–20OY
Sat 9/27Colorado vs BYU+6.5L21–2448.5L21–24UY
Sat 10/4Colorado at TCU+13.5L21–3557.5L21–35UN
Sat 10/11Colorado vs Iowa State+3.0W24–1752.5W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Colorado at Utah+14.5L7–5350.5L7–53ON
Sat 11/1Colorado vs Arizona+4.0L17–5252.5L17–52ON
Sat 11/8Colorado at West Virginia+6.5L22–2951.5L22–29UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Colorado vs Arizona State+7.0L17–4247.5L17–42ON
Sat 11/29Colorado at Kansas State+16.5L14–2450.5L14–24UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Arizona State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arizona State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arizona State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Arizona State #91
+0.350
Colorado #99
+0.219
Arizona State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #68
+0.657
Colorado #84
+0.383
Arizona State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Arizona State #15
0.188
Colorado #80
0.151
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arizona State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #103
+7.387
Colorado #95
+6.943
Arizona State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Arizona State #99
+0.832
Colorado #131
+0.760
Arizona State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Arizona State #106
72.3
Colorado #78
71.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Colorado Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Arizona State
7.3
Colorado
0.1
Offense Rating
Arizona State
21.3
Colorado
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Arizona State
13.9
Colorado
15.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Arizona State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Arizona State #32
1.22
Colorado #112
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #58
1.00
Colorado #76
1.20
Arizona State +0.72
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Arizona State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Arizona State #1
44.6
Colorado #1
36.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #71
38.9
Colorado #108
48.4
Arizona State +8.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Arizona State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
14–11 (56%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Marcus Arroyo Yr 2 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Colorado
Deion Sanders #1
13–11 (54%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Pat Shurmur Yr 2 #1
DC Robert Livingston Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself