Matchup Prediction
Arizona
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Arizona entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arizona wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Arizona wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arizona -4
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arizona
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arizona 2025 Schedule
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Arizona vs Hawai'i | -13.5W40–6 | 55.5 | W40–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Arizona vs Weber State | -31.5W48–3 | 56.5 | W48–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/12 | Arizona vs Kansas State | +1.5W23–17 | 55.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Arizona at Iowa State | +4.0L14–39 | 48.5 | L14–39 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Arizona vs Oklahoma State | -21.5W41–13 | 56.5 | W41–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Arizona vs BYU | +2.5L27–33 | 46.5 | L27–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Arizona at Houston | -1.5L28–31 | 47.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Arizona at Colorado | -4.0W52–17 | 52.5 | W52–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Arizona vs Kansas | -5.5W24–20 | 56.5 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Arizona at Cincinnati | +6.5W30–24 | 56.5 | W30–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Arizona vs Baylor | -6.5W41–17 | 61.5 | W41–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/28 | Arizona at Arizona State | -2.0W23–7 | 48.5 | W23–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 1/2 | Arizona vs SMU | +2.5L19–24 | 55.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
Colorado 2025 Schedule
Colorado's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/29 | Colorado vs Georgia Tech | +4.0L20–27 | 55.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Colorado vs Delaware | -23.5W31–7 | 49.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/12 | Colorado at Houston | +4.0L20–36 | 45.5 | L20–36 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Colorado vs Wyoming | -12.5W37–20 | 45.5 | W37–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Colorado vs BYU | +6.5L21–24 | 48.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Colorado at TCU | +13.5L21–35 | 57.5 | L21–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Colorado vs Iowa State | +3.0W24–17 | 52.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | Colorado at Utah | +14.5L7–53 | 50.5 | L7–53 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Colorado vs Arizona | +4.0L17–52 | 52.5 | L17–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Colorado at West Virginia | +6.5L22–29 | 51.5 | L22–29 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Colorado vs Arizona State | +7.0L17–42 | 47.5 | L17–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Colorado at Kansas State | +16.5L14–24 | 50.5 | L14–24 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arizona
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arizona
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arizona Edge
Arizona +0.54
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arizona Edge
Arizona +17.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arizona with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arizona
Brent Brennan #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Seth Doege
Yr 1
#1
DC
Danny Gonzales
Yr 1
#1
Colorado
Deion Sanders #1
13–11 (54%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Pat Shurmur
Yr 2
#1
DC
Robert Livingston
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓