Colorado at West Virginia Week 11 College Football Matchup Colorado at West Virginia Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 8 2025 · Week 11 · 🏟 Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium Morgantown, WV · Turf · 60,000 cap
Colorado✈ 1,338 mi+2 hr TZ
Away
22 29
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Colorado
23
COLO +6.5
West Virginia
29
P&R Line West Virginia -6
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas West Virginia -6.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Colorado has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Colorado entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Colorado wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Colorado wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
West Virginia -6.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → West Virginia · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Colorado 2025 Schedule
Colorado's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Colorado vs Georgia Tech+4.0L20–2755.5L20–27UN
Sat 9/6Colorado vs Delaware-23.5W31–749.5W31–7UY
Fri 9/12Colorado at Houston+4.0L20–3645.5L20–36ON
Sat 9/20Colorado vs Wyoming-12.5W37–2045.5W37–20OY
Sat 9/27Colorado vs BYU+6.5L21–2448.5L21–24UY
Sat 10/4Colorado at TCU+13.5L21–3557.5L21–35UN
Sat 10/11Colorado vs Iowa State+3.0W24–1752.5W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Colorado at Utah+14.5L7–5350.5L7–53ON
Sat 11/1Colorado vs Arizona+4.0L17–5252.5L17–52ON
Sat 11/8Colorado at West Virginia+6.5L22–2951.5L22–29UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Colorado vs Arizona State+7.0L17–4247.5L17–42ON
Sat 11/29Colorado at Kansas State+16.5L14–2450.5L14–24UY
West Virginia 2025 Schedule
West Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30West Virginia vs Robert Morris-40.0W45–356.5W45–3UY
Sat 9/6West Virginia at Ohio-3.5L10–1758.5L10–17UN
Sat 9/13West Virginia vs Pittsburgh+6.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/20West Virginia at Kansas+12.5L10–4154.5L10–41UN
Sat 9/27West Virginia vs Utah+13.5L14–4846.5L14–48ON
Fri 10/3West Virginia at BYU+19.5L24–3846.5L24–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18West Virginia at UCF+6.5L13–4546.5L13–45ON
Sat 10/25West Virginia vs TCU+16.5L17–2355.5L17–23UY
Sat 11/1West Virginia at Houston+13.5W45–3548.5W45–35OY
Sat 11/8West Virginia vs Colorado-6.5W29–2251.5W29–22UY
Sat 11/15West Virginia at Arizona State+10.0L23–2546.5L23–25OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29West Virginia vs Texas Tech+24.5L0–4953.5L0–49UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
West Virginia PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ West Virginia
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ West Virginia
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ West Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Colorado #99
+0.274
West Virginia #118
+0.283
West Virginia Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Colorado #84
+0.546
West Virginia #99
+0.605
West Virginia Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Colorado #80
0.151
West Virginia #26
0.177
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
West Virginia Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Colorado #95
+7.386
West Virginia #86
+7.544
West Virginia Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Colorado #131
+0.757
West Virginia #121
+0.798
West Virginia Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Colorado #78
71.3
West Virginia #89
71.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Colorado Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
West Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Colorado
0.1
West Virginia
1.2
Offense Rating
Colorado
15.7
West Virginia
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Colorado
15.6
West Virginia
16.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Colorado Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Colorado #112
0.56
West Virginia #108
0.38
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Colorado #76
1.33
West Virginia #110
1.88
Colorado +0.18
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Colorado Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Colorado #1
39.6
West Virginia #1
28.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Colorado #108
44.8
West Virginia #127
61.4
Colorado +10.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Colorado. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Colorado
Deion Sanders #1
13–11 (54%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Pat Shurmur Yr 2 #1
DC Robert Livingston Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
West Virginia
Rich Rodriguez #1
60–26 (70%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Rich Rodriguez Yr 1 #1
DC Zac Alley Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself