Georgia Tech at Colorado Week 1 College Football Matchup Georgia Tech at Colorado Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Aug 29 2025 · Week 1 · 🏟 Folsom Field Boulder, CO · Turf · 50,183 cap
Georgia Tech✈ 1,227 mi-2 hr TZ
27 20
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Georgia Tech
37
Colorado
19
P&R Line Georgia Tech -18
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Georgia Tech -4 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Georgia Tech -4
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Georgia Tech · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Tech 2025 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Georgia Tech at Colorado-4.0W27–2055.5W27–20UY
Sat 9/6Georgia Tech vs Gardner-Webb-37.5W59–1260.5W59–12OY
Sat 9/13Georgia Tech vs Clemson+2.5W24–2149.5W24–21UY
Sat 9/20Georgia Tech vs Temple-24.5W45–2452.5W45–24ON
Sat 9/27Georgia Tech at Wake Forest-13.5W30–2953.5W30–29ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech-14.0W35–2055.5W35–20UY
Sat 10/18Georgia Tech at Duke+3.5W27–1860.5W27–18UY
Sat 10/25Georgia Tech vs Syracuse-17.5W41–1652.5W41–16OY
Sat 11/1Georgia Tech at NC State-4.5L36–4858.5L36–48ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Georgia Tech at Boston College-16.5W36–3461.5W36–34ON
Sat 11/22Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh-2.5L28–4261.5L28–42ON
Fri 11/28Georgia Tech vs Georgia+15.5L9–1659.5L9–16UY
Sat 12/27Georgia Tech vs BYU+3.5L21–2555.0L21–25UN
Colorado 2025 Schedule
Colorado's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Colorado vs Georgia Tech+4.0L20–2755.5L20–27UN
Sat 9/6Colorado vs Delaware-23.5W31–749.5W31–7UY
Fri 9/12Colorado at Houston+4.0L20–3645.5L20–36ON
Sat 9/20Colorado vs Wyoming-12.5W37–2045.5W37–20OY
Sat 9/27Colorado vs BYU+6.5L21–2448.5L21–24UY
Sat 10/4Colorado at TCU+13.5L21–3557.5L21–35UN
Sat 10/11Colorado vs Iowa State+3.0W24–1752.5W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Colorado at Utah+14.5L7–5350.5L7–53ON
Sat 11/1Colorado vs Arizona+4.0L17–5252.5L17–52ON
Sat 11/8Colorado at West Virginia+6.5L22–2951.5L22–29UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Colorado vs Arizona State+7.0L17–4247.5L17–42ON
Sat 11/29Colorado at Kansas State+16.5L14–2450.5L14–24UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Georgia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Georgia Tech #21
+0.486
Colorado #99
+0.314
Georgia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #15
+0.828
Colorado #84
+0.508
Georgia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #108
0.137
Colorado #80
0.151
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Colorado Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #78
+7.625
Colorado #95
+7.041
Georgia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Georgia Tech #7
+0.924
Colorado #131
+0.791
Georgia Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Georgia Tech #99
71.9
Colorado #78
71.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Colorado Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Georgia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Georgia Tech
1.1
Colorado
0.1
Offense Rating
Georgia Tech
14.2
Colorado
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Georgia Tech
13.1
Colorado
15.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Georgia Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Georgia Tech #14
0.00
Colorado #112
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia Tech #71
0.00
Colorado #76
0.00
Georgia Tech +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Georgia Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Georgia Tech #1
0.0
Colorado #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia Tech #59
0.0
Colorado #108
0.0
Georgia Tech +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Colorado, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
18–15 (55%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Buster Faulkner Yr 3 #1
DC Blake Gideon Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Colorado
Deion Sanders #1
13–11 (54%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Pat Shurmur Yr 2 #1
DC Robert Livingston Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself