Sat, Nov 8 2025
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium
Chapel Hill, NC
·
Turf
·
62,980 cap
Stanford✈ 2,370 mi+3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
North Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
North Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -8.5
O/U 41.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Stanford 2025 Schedule
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/23 | Stanford at Hawai'i | +1.5L20–23 | 53.5 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Stanford at BYU | +20.5L3–27 | 44.5 | L3–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Stanford vs Boston College | +14.0W30–20 | 44.5 | W30–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Stanford at Virginia | +16.5L20–48 | 48.5 | L20–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | Stanford vs San José State | -3.0W30–29 | 49.5 | W30–29 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Stanford at SMU | +19.5L10–34 | 55.5 | L10–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Stanford vs Florida State | +17.5W20–13 | 55.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Stanford at Miami | +28.5L7–42 | 45.5 | L7–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Stanford vs Pittsburgh | +13.5L20–35 | 51.5 | L20–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Stanford at North Carolina | +8.5L15–20 | 41.5 | L15–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/22 | Stanford vs California | +4.5W31–10 | 47.5 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Stanford vs Notre Dame | +32.5L20–49 | 50.5 | L20–49 | O | Y |
North Carolina 2025 Schedule
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/1 | North Carolina vs TCU | +3.0L14–48 | 59.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | North Carolina at Charlotte | -16.5W20–3 | 49.5 | W20–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | North Carolina vs Richmond | -24.5W41–6 | 47.5 | W41–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | North Carolina at UCF | +7.0L9–34 | 46.5 | L9–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | North Carolina vs Clemson | +15.5L10–38 | 47.5 | L10–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/17 | North Carolina at California | +7.5L18–21 | 45.5 | L18–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | North Carolina vs Virginia | +12.5L16–17 | 51.5 | L16–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/31 | North Carolina at Syracuse | +1.5W27–10 | 45.5 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | North Carolina vs Stanford | -8.5W20–15 | 41.5 | W20–15 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | North Carolina at Wake Forest | +3.5L12–28 | 37.5 | L12–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | North Carolina vs Duke | +6.5L25–32 | 50.5 | L25–32 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | North Carolina at NC State | +7.0L19–42 | 48.5 | L19–42 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +0.02
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +9.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
North Carolina
65.0 — 12.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
North Carolina won by 5
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on North Carolina. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Stanford
Troy Taylor #1
6–18 (25%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Troy Taylor
Yr 3
#1
DC
Bobby April
Yr 1
#1
North Carolina
Bill Belichick #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Freddie Kitchens
Yr 1
#1
DC
Stephen Belichick
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓