North Carolina at Charlotte Week 2 College Football Matchup North Carolina at Charlotte Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 6 2025 · Week 2 · 🏟 Jerry Richardson Stadium Charlotte, NC · Turf · 15,314 cap
North Carolina✈ 103 miSame TZ
20 3
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
34
Charlotte
15
P&R Line North Carolina -19.5
P&R Total O/U 48.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas North Carolina -16.5 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
North Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -16.5
O/U 49.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → North Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Charlotte 2nd straight Home Game
North Carolina 2025 Schedule
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1North Carolina vs TCU+3.0L14–4859.5L14–48ON
Sat 9/6North Carolina at Charlotte-16.5W20–349.5W20–3UY
Sat 9/13North Carolina vs Richmond-24.5W41–647.5W41–6UY
Sat 9/20North Carolina at UCF+7.0L9–3446.5L9–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4North Carolina vs Clemson+15.5L10–3847.5L10–38ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/17North Carolina at California+7.5L18–2145.5L18–21UY
Sat 10/25North Carolina vs Virginia+12.5L16–1751.5L16–17UY
Fri 10/31North Carolina at Syracuse+1.5W27–1045.5W27–10UY
Sat 11/8North Carolina vs Stanford-8.5W20–1541.5W20–15UN
Sat 11/15North Carolina at Wake Forest+3.5L12–2837.5L12–28ON
Sat 11/22North Carolina vs Duke+6.5L25–3250.5L25–32ON
Sat 11/29North Carolina at NC State+7.0L19–4248.5L19–42ON
Charlotte 2025 Schedule
Charlotte's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Charlotte vs App State+8.5L11–3453.5L11–34UN
Sat 9/6Charlotte vs North Carolina+16.5L3–2049.5L3–20UN
Sat 9/13Charlotte vs Monmouth-3.0W42–3566.5W42–35OY
Thu 9/18Charlotte vs Rice+1.5L17–2841.5L17–28ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/3Charlotte at South Florida+28.5L26–5454.5L26–54OY
Sat 10/11Charlotte at Army+17.5L7–2445.5L7–24UY
Sat 10/18Charlotte vs Temple+10.0L14–4947.5L14–49ON
Fri 10/24Charlotte vs North Texas+25.5L20–5460.5L20–54ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Charlotte at East Carolina+29.5L22–4856.5L22–48OY
Sat 11/15Charlotte vs UTSA+16.5L7–2857.5L7–28UN
Sat 11/22Charlotte at Georgia+42.5L3–3553.5L3–35UY
Sat 11/29Charlotte at Tulane+31.5L0–2752.5L0–27UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ North Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ North Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina #119
+0.330
Charlotte #136
+0.165
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #92
+0.549
Charlotte #118
+0.336
North Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina #91
0.148
Charlotte #134
0.106
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
North Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #108
+7.490
Charlotte #131
+6.301
North Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina #115
+0.921
Charlotte #133
+0.752
North Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina #62
70.7
Charlotte #109
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
North Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.1
Charlotte
-17.8
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
Charlotte
9.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
15.9
Charlotte
27.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #120
0.00
Charlotte #132
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #63
2.00
Charlotte #105
1.00
North Carolina +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
18.2
Charlotte #1
11.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #115
63.5
Charlotte #137
68.1
North Carolina +7.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Bill Belichick #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Freddie Kitchens Yr 1 #1
DC Stephen Belichick Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Charlotte
Tim Albin #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Todd Fitch Yr 1 #1
DC Nate Faanes Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself