Virginia at North Carolina Week 9 College Football Matchup Virginia at North Carolina Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 25 2025 · Week 9 · 🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium Chapel Hill, NC · Turf · 62,980 cap
Virginia✈ 149 miSame TZ
Away
17 16
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia
33
North Carolina
18
P&R Line Virginia -15
P&R Total O/U 50
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Virginia -12.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Virginia has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Virginia entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Virginia wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Virginia wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Virginia -12.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Virginia · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia 2025 Schedule
Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Virginia vs Coastal Carolina-12.5W48–757.5W48–7UY
Sat 9/6Virginia at NC State+3.0L31–3553.0L31–35ON
Sat 9/13Virginia vs William & Mary-30.5W55–1654.5W55–16OY
Sat 9/20Virginia vs Stanford-16.5W48–2048.5W48–20OY
Fri 9/26Virginia vs Florida State+7.0W46–3859.5W46–38OY
Sat 10/4Virginia at Louisville+6.5W30–2759.5W30–27UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Virginia vs Washington State-16.5W22–2056.5W22–20UN
Sat 10/25Virginia at North Carolina-12.5W17–1651.5W17–16UN
Sat 11/1Virginia at California-6.5W31–2152.5W31–21UY
Sat 11/8Virginia vs Wake Forest-7.0L9–1648.5L9–16UN
Sat 11/15Virginia at Duke+5.5W34–1759.5W34–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29Virginia vs Virginia Tech-9.5W27–753.5W27–7UY
Sat 12/6Virginia vs Duke-3.5L20–2758.5L20–27UN
Sat 12/27Virginia vs Missouri+4.0W13–743.5W13–7UY
North Carolina 2025 Schedule
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1North Carolina vs TCU+3.0L14–4859.5L14–48ON
Sat 9/6North Carolina at Charlotte-16.5W20–349.5W20–3UY
Sat 9/13North Carolina vs Richmond-24.5W41–647.5W41–6UY
Sat 9/20North Carolina at UCF+7.0L9–3446.5L9–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4North Carolina vs Clemson+15.5L10–3847.5L10–38ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/17North Carolina at California+7.5L18–2145.5L18–21UY
Sat 10/25North Carolina vs Virginia+12.5L16–1751.5L16–17UY
Fri 10/31North Carolina at Syracuse+1.5W27–1045.5W27–10UY
Sat 11/8North Carolina vs Stanford-8.5W20–1541.5W20–15UN
Sat 11/15North Carolina at Wake Forest+3.5L12–2837.5L12–28ON
Sat 11/22North Carolina vs Duke+6.5L25–3250.5L25–32ON
Sat 11/29North Carolina at NC State+7.0L19–4248.5L19–42ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Virginia PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Virginia
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Virginia
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia #64
+0.361
North Carolina #119
+0.127
Virginia Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia #76
+0.438
North Carolina #92
+0.353
Virginia Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia #23
0.181
North Carolina #91
0.148
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Virginia Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia #82
+7.138
North Carolina #108
+6.342
Virginia Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia #82
+0.826
North Carolina #115
+0.756
Virginia Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia #30
69.3
North Carolina #62
70.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Virginia Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia
7.0
North Carolina
-0.1
Offense Rating
Virginia
17.9
North Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia
10.9
North Carolina
15.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Virginia Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia #29
1.67
North Carolina #120
0.20
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia #9
0.83
North Carolina #63
1.20
Virginia +1.47
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Virginia Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia #1
58.4
North Carolina #1
35.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia #18
20.1
North Carolina #115
58.1
Virginia +22.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Virginia with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
11–23 (32%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Des Kitchings Yr 3 #1
DC John Rudzinski Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
North Carolina
Bill Belichick #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Freddie Kitchens Yr 1 #1
DC Stephen Belichick Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself