Sat, Sep 13 2025
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium
Chapel Hill, NC
·
Turf
·
62,980 cap
Richmond✈ 142 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
North Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -24.5
O/U 47.5
ESPN Bet
Richmond 2025 Schedule
Richmond's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/13 | Richmond at North Carolina | +24.5L6–41 | 47.5 | L6–41 | U | N |
North Carolina 2025 Schedule
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/1 | North Carolina vs TCU | +3.0L14–48 | 59.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | North Carolina at Charlotte | -16.5W20–3 | 49.5 | W20–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | North Carolina vs Richmond | -24.5W41–6 | 47.5 | W41–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | North Carolina at UCF | +7.0L9–34 | 46.5 | L9–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | North Carolina vs Clemson | +15.5L10–38 | 47.5 | L10–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/17 | North Carolina at California | +7.5L18–21 | 45.5 | L18–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | North Carolina vs Virginia | +12.5L16–17 | 51.5 | L16–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/31 | North Carolina at Syracuse | +1.5W27–10 | 45.5 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | North Carolina vs Stanford | -8.5W20–15 | 41.5 | W20–15 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | North Carolina at Wake Forest | +3.5L12–28 | 37.5 | L12–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | North Carolina vs Duke | +6.5L25–32 | 50.5 | L25–32 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | North Carolina at NC State | +7.0L19–42 | 48.5 | L19–42 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Richmond Edge
Richmond +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +35.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓