North Carolina at Wake Forest Week 12 College Football Matchup North Carolina at Wake Forest Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 15 2025 · Week 12 · 🏟 BB&T Field Winston-Salem, NC · Turf · 31,500 cap
12 28
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
14
Wake Forest
28
P&R Line Wake Forest -13.5
P&R Total O/U 41.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Wake Forest -3.5 · O/U 37.5
Matchup Prediction
Wake Forest has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Wake Forest entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Wake Forest wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Wake Forest wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Wake Forest -3.5
O/U 37.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Wake Forest · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
North Carolina 2025 Schedule
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1North Carolina vs TCU+3.0L14–4859.5L14–48ON
Sat 9/6North Carolina at Charlotte-16.5W20–349.5W20–3UY
Sat 9/13North Carolina vs Richmond-24.5W41–647.5W41–6UY
Sat 9/20North Carolina at UCF+7.0L9–3446.5L9–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4North Carolina vs Clemson+15.5L10–3847.5L10–38ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/17North Carolina at California+7.5L18–2145.5L18–21UY
Sat 10/25North Carolina vs Virginia+12.5L16–1751.5L16–17UY
Fri 10/31North Carolina at Syracuse+1.5W27–1045.5W27–10UY
Sat 11/8North Carolina vs Stanford-8.5W20–1541.5W20–15UN
Sat 11/15North Carolina at Wake Forest+3.5L12–2837.5L12–28ON
Sat 11/22North Carolina vs Duke+6.5L25–3250.5L25–32ON
Sat 11/29North Carolina at NC State+7.0L19–4248.5L19–42ON
Wake Forest 2025 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State-17.5W10–951.5W10–9UN
Sat 9/6Wake Forest vs Western Carolina-17.5W42–1060.5W42–10UY
Thu 9/11Wake Forest vs NC State+7.5L24–3452.5L24–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech+13.5L29–3053.5L29–30OY
Sat 10/4Wake Forest at Virginia Tech+4.5W30–2351.5W30–23OY
Sat 10/11Wake Forest at Oregon State-1.5W39–1447.5W39–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Wake Forest vs SMU+6.5W13–1253.5W13–12UY
Sat 11/1Wake Forest at Florida State+12.5L7–4250.5L7–42UN
Sat 11/8Wake Forest at Virginia+7.0W16–948.5W16–9UY
Sat 11/15Wake Forest vs North Carolina-3.5W28–1237.5W28–12OY
Sat 11/22Wake Forest vs Delaware-17.5W52–1449.5W52–14OY
Sat 11/29Wake Forest at Duke+2.5L32–4954.0L32–49ON
Fri 1/2Wake Forest vs Mississippi State+3.0W43–2952.5W43–29OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Wake Forest PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Wake Forest
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Wake Forest
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wake Forest
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina #119
+0.092
Wake Forest #82
+0.330
Wake Forest Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #92
+0.309
Wake Forest #69
+0.448
Wake Forest Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina #91
0.148
Wake Forest #21
0.182
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Wake Forest Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #108
+6.565
Wake Forest #113
+6.808
Wake Forest Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina #115
+0.733
Wake Forest #112
+0.794
Wake Forest Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina #62
70.7
Wake Forest #30
69.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Wake Forest Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Wake Forest Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.1
Wake Forest
4.6
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
Wake Forest
16.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
15.9
Wake Forest
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Wake Forest Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #120
0.63
Wake Forest #42
0.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #63
0.88
Wake Forest #40
1.00
Wake Forest +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Wake Forest Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
38.6
Wake Forest #1
56.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #115
48.2
Wake Forest #20
25.5
Wake Forest +18.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Wake Forest with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Bill Belichick #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Freddie Kitchens Yr 1 #1
DC Stephen Belichick Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Wake Forest
Jake Dickert #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Rob Ezell Yr 1 #1
DC Scottie Hazelton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself