North Carolina at Syracuse Week 10 College Football Matchup North Carolina at Syracuse Matchup - Week 10
Fri, Oct 31 2025 · Week 10 · 🏟 Carrier Dome Syracuse, NY · Turf · 49,250 cap
North Carolina✈ 516 miSame TZ
27 10
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
27
Syracuse
20
P&R Line North Carolina -6.5
P&R Total O/U 46.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Syracuse -1.5 · O/U 45.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Syracuse, while Game Control favors North Carolina. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Syracuse wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
North Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Syracuse -1.5
O/U 45.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → North Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
North Carolina 2025 Schedule
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1North Carolina vs TCU+3.0L14–4859.5L14–48ON
Sat 9/6North Carolina at Charlotte-16.5W20–349.5W20–3UY
Sat 9/13North Carolina vs Richmond-24.5W41–647.5W41–6UY
Sat 9/20North Carolina at UCF+7.0L9–3446.5L9–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4North Carolina vs Clemson+15.5L10–3847.5L10–38ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/17North Carolina at California+7.5L18–2145.5L18–21UY
Sat 10/25North Carolina vs Virginia+12.5L16–1751.5L16–17UY
Fri 10/31North Carolina at Syracuse+1.5W27–1045.5W27–10UY
Sat 11/8North Carolina vs Stanford-8.5W20–1541.5W20–15UN
Sat 11/15North Carolina at Wake Forest+3.5L12–2837.5L12–28ON
Sat 11/22North Carolina vs Duke+6.5L25–3250.5L25–32ON
Sat 11/29North Carolina at NC State+7.0L19–4248.5L19–42ON
Syracuse 2025 Schedule
Syracuse's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Syracuse vs Tennessee+13.5L26–4553.5L26–45ON
Sat 9/6Syracuse vs UConn-7.0W27–2057.5W27–20UN
Fri 9/12Syracuse vs Colgate-37.5W66–2464.5W66–24OY
Sat 9/20Syracuse at Clemson+17.5W34–2153.5W34–21OY
Sat 9/27Syracuse vs Duke+4.0L3–3859.5L3–38UN
Sat 10/4Syracuse at SMU+17.5L18–3156.5L18–31UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Syracuse vs Pittsburgh+9.5L13–3054.5L13–30UN
Sat 10/25Syracuse at Georgia Tech+17.5L16–4152.5L16–41ON
Fri 10/31Syracuse vs North Carolina-1.5L10–2745.5L10–27UN
Sat 11/8Syracuse at Miami+28.5L10–3847.5L10–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Syracuse at Notre Dame+36.5L7–7051.5L7–70ON
Sat 11/29Syracuse vs Boston College+2.5L12–3454.5L12–34UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ North Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ North Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina #119
+0.342
Syracuse #127
+0.213
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #92
+0.644
Syracuse #124
+0.299
North Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina #91
0.148
Syracuse #114
0.134
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
North Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #108
+7.476
Syracuse #123
+6.561
North Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina #115
+0.836
Syracuse #117
+0.786
North Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina #62
70.7
Syracuse #109
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
North Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.1
Syracuse
-2.2
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
Syracuse
16.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
15.9
Syracuse
18.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Syracuse Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #120
0.17
Syracuse #126
0.29
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #63
1.00
Syracuse #109
1.29
Syracuse +0.12
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
33.9
Syracuse #1
28.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #115
54.3
Syracuse #130
62.5
North Carolina +5.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Bill Belichick #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Freddie Kitchens Yr 1 #1
DC Stephen Belichick Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Syracuse
Fran Brown #1
9–3 (75%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jeff Nixon Yr 1 #1
DC Elijah Robinson Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself