East Carolina at Florida Atlantic Week 14 College Football Matchup East Carolina at Florida Atlantic Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 29 2025 · Week 14 · 🏟 FAU Stadium Boca Raton, FL · Turf · 30,000 cap
East Carolina✈ 657 miSame TZ
42 3
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
East Carolina
38
ECU -6.5
Florida Atlantic
25
P&R Line East Carolina -13
P&R Total O/U 63.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas East Carolina -6.5 · O/U 66.5
Matchup Prediction
East Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor East Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
East Carolina -6.5
O/U 66.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → East Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Florida Atlantic 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 East Carolina 2nd straight Road Game
East Carolina 2025 Schedule
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28East Carolina at NC State+12.5L17–2458.5L17–24UY
Sat 9/6East Carolina vs Campbell-30.0W56–356.0W56–3OY
Sat 9/13East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.0W38–058.0W38–0UY
Sat 9/20East Carolina vs BYU+6.5L13–3449.5L13–34UN
Thu 9/25East Carolina vs Army-3.5W28–652.5W28–6UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9East Carolina at Tulane+7.0L19–2653.5L19–26UY
Thu 10/16East Carolina vs Tulsa-16.5W41–2754.5W41–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1East Carolina at Temple-5.5W45–1458.5W45–14OY
Sat 11/8East Carolina vs Charlotte-29.5W48–2256.5W48–22ON
Sat 11/15East Carolina vs Memphis-3.0W31–2756.5W31–27OY
Sat 11/22East Carolina at UTSA-2.0L24–5862.5L24–58ON
Sat 11/29East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-6.5W42–366.5W42–3UY
Sat 12/27East Carolina vs Pittsburgh+13.5W23–1751.5W23–17UY
Florida Atlantic 2025 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Florida Atlantic at Maryland+16.5L7–3957.5L7–39UN
Sat 9/6Florida Atlantic vs Florida A&M-21.0W56–1451.0W56–14OY
Sat 9/13Florida Atlantic at Florida International+2.0L28–3856.5L28–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Florida Atlantic vs Memphis+14.0L26–5562.5L26–55ON
Sat 10/4Florida Atlantic at Rice+4.5W27–2154.5W27–21UY
Sat 10/11Florida Atlantic vs UAB-4.5W53–3366.5W53–33OY
Sat 10/18Florida Atlantic at South Florida+20.5L13–4872.5L13–48UN
Sat 10/25Florida Atlantic at Navy+14.5L32–4263.5L32–42OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Florida Atlantic vs Tulsa-4.5W40–2160.5W40–21OY
Sat 11/15Florida Atlantic at Tulane+16.5L24–3560.5L24–35UY
Sat 11/22Florida Atlantic vs UConn+6.0L45–4864.0L45–48OY
Sat 11/29Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina+6.5L3–4266.5L3–42UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
East Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ East Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
East Carolina #40
+0.471
Florida Atlantic #43
+0.299
East Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #32
+0.674
Florida Atlantic #42
+0.506
East Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
East Carolina #11
0.191
Florida Atlantic #106
0.139
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
East Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #63
+8.335
Florida Atlantic #93
+6.540
East Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
East Carolina #22
+0.918
Florida Atlantic #80
+0.800
East Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
East Carolina #22
68.8
Florida Atlantic #35
69.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
East Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
East Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
East Carolina
1.4
Florida Atlantic
-6.5
Offense Rating
East Carolina
15.8
Florida Atlantic
11.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
East Carolina
14.3
Florida Atlantic
18.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? East Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
East Carolina #18
1.20
Florida Atlantic #101
0.80
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #36
1.00
Florida Atlantic #127
2.00
East Carolina +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? East Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
East Carolina #1
55.2
Florida Atlantic #1
38.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #39
34.2
Florida Atlantic #112
51.4
East Carolina +17.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on East Carolina with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Blake Harrell #1
4–1 (80%) · Yr 2 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 2 #1
DC Josh Aldridge Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Florida Atlantic
Zach Kittley #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Vacant Yr 1 #1
DC Brett Dewhurst Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself