Pittsburgh at East Carolina Week 1 College Football Matchup Pittsburgh at East Carolina Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Dec 27 2025 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium Annapolis, MD · Turf · 34,000 cap
Pittsburgh✈ 212 miSame TZ East Carolina✈ 238 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
17 23
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Pittsburgh
30
ECU +13.5
East Carolina
23
P&R Line Pittsburgh -7
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Pittsburgh -13.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Pittsburgh has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Pittsburgh entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Pittsburgh wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Pittsburgh wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Pittsburgh -13.5
O/U 51.5
Draft Kings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → East Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Pittsburgh 2025 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Pittsburgh vs Duquesne-39.5W61–958.5W61–9OY
Sat 9/6Pittsburgh vs Central Michigan-21.5W45–1748.5W45–17OY
Sat 9/13Pittsburgh at West Virginia-6.5L24–3154.5L24–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Pittsburgh vs Louisville+3.0L27–3453.5L27–34ON
Sat 10/4Pittsburgh vs Boston College-6.5W48–754.5W48–7OY
Sat 10/11Pittsburgh at Florida State+10.5W34–3156.5W34–31OY
Sat 10/18Pittsburgh at Syracuse-9.5W30–1354.5W30–13UY
Sat 10/25Pittsburgh vs NC State-5.5W53–3452.5W53–34OY
Sat 11/1Pittsburgh at Stanford-13.5W35–2051.5W35–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame+12.5L15–3755.5L15–37UN
Sat 11/22Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech+2.5W42–2861.5W42–28OY
Sat 11/29Pittsburgh vs Miami+6.5L7–3849.5L7–38UN
Sat 12/27Pittsburgh vs East Carolina-13.5L17–2351.5L17–23UN
East Carolina 2025 Schedule
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28East Carolina at NC State+12.5L17–2458.5L17–24UY
Sat 9/6East Carolina vs Campbell-30.0W56–356.0W56–3OY
Sat 9/13East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.0W38–058.0W38–0UY
Sat 9/20East Carolina vs BYU+6.5L13–3449.5L13–34UN
Thu 9/25East Carolina vs Army-3.5W28–652.5W28–6UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9East Carolina at Tulane+7.0L19–2653.5L19–26UY
Thu 10/16East Carolina vs Tulsa-16.5W41–2754.5W41–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1East Carolina at Temple-5.5W45–1458.5W45–14OY
Sat 11/8East Carolina vs Charlotte-29.5W48–2256.5W48–22ON
Sat 11/15East Carolina vs Memphis-3.0W31–2756.5W31–27OY
Sat 11/22East Carolina at UTSA-2.0L24–5862.5L24–58ON
Sat 11/29East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-6.5W42–366.5W42–3UY
Sat 12/27East Carolina vs Pittsburgh+13.5W23–1751.5W23–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
East Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ East Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Pittsburgh #57
+0.282
East Carolina #40
+0.284
East Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh #40
+0.513
East Carolina #32
+0.575
East Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh #13
0.189
East Carolina #11
0.191
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
East Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh #74
+6.695
East Carolina #63
+7.564
East Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Pittsburgh #94
+0.789
East Carolina #22
+0.815
East Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Pittsburgh #6
66.7
East Carolina #22
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Pittsburgh Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Pittsburgh Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Pittsburgh
9.1
East Carolina
1.4
Offense Rating
Pittsburgh
19.3
East Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Pittsburgh
10.2
East Carolina
14.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Pittsburgh #5
2.00
East Carolina #18
1.46
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Pittsburgh #66
0.82
East Carolina #36
0.91
Pittsburgh +0.55
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Pittsburgh #1
63.2
East Carolina #1
58.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Pittsburgh #22
25.3
East Carolina #39
31.6
Pittsburgh +4.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
East Carolina
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
East Carolina
45.3 — 21.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
East Carolina won by 6
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Pittsburgh, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
72–55 (57%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Kade Bell Yr 2 #1
DC Randy Bates Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
East Carolina
Blake Harrell #1
4–1 (80%) · Yr 2 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 2 #1
DC Josh Aldridge Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself