Sat, Sep 13 2025
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Brooks Stadium
Conway, SC
·
Turf
·
9,214 cap
East Carolina✈ 156 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
East Carolina
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
East Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
East Carolina wins
Solid
Game Control
49.4%
East Carolina wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
East Carolina -7.0
O/U 58.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → East Carolina
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
East Carolina 2025 Schedule
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | East Carolina at NC State | +12.5L17–24 | 58.5 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | East Carolina vs Campbell | -30.0W56–3 | 56.0 | W56–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | East Carolina at Coastal Carolina | -7.0W38–0 | 58.0 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | East Carolina vs BYU | +6.5L13–34 | 49.5 | L13–34 | U | N |
| Thu 9/25 | East Carolina vs Army | -3.5W28–6 | 52.5 | W28–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/9 | East Carolina at Tulane | +7.0L19–26 | 53.5 | L19–26 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/16 | East Carolina vs Tulsa | -16.5W41–27 | 54.5 | W41–27 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | East Carolina at Temple | -5.5W45–14 | 58.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | East Carolina vs Charlotte | -29.5W48–22 | 56.5 | W48–22 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | East Carolina vs Memphis | -3.0W31–27 | 56.5 | W31–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | East Carolina at UTSA | -2.0L24–58 | 62.5 | L24–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | East Carolina at Florida Atlantic | -6.5W42–3 | 66.5 | W42–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/27 | East Carolina vs Pittsburgh | +13.5W23–17 | 51.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
Coastal Carolina 2025 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Coastal Carolina at Virginia | +12.5L7–48 | 57.5 | L7–48 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Coastal Carolina vs Charleston Southern | -28.5W13–0 | 49.0 | W13–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina | +7.0L0–38 | 58.0 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Coastal Carolina at South Alabama | +14.5W38–20 | 51.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion | +18.5L7–47 | 53.5 | L7–47 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Coastal Carolina vs UL Monroe | +3.0W23–8 | 46.5 | W23–8 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Coastal Carolina at App State | +10.5W45–37 | 48.5 | W45–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/30 | Coastal Carolina vs Marshall | +7.5W44–27 | 55.5 | W44–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State | -7.0W40–27 | 56.5 | W40–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern | +3.0L40–45 | 59.5 | L40–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Coastal Carolina at South Carolina | +24.0L7–51 | 50.0 | L7–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Coastal Carolina vs James Madison | +24.0L10–59 | 54.5 | L10–59 | O | N |
| Tue 12/30 | Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech | +10.0L14–23 | 51.0 | L14–23 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ East Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
East Carolina Edge
East Carolina +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
East Carolina Edge
East Carolina +3.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on East Carolina, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Blake Harrell #1
4–1 (80%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
John David Baker
Yr 2
#1
DC
Josh Aldridge
Yr 1
#1
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
14–11 (56%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Tim Beck*
Yr 1
#1
DC
Craig Naivar
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓