Army at East Carolina Week 5 College Football Matchup Army at East Carolina Matchup - Week 5
Thu, Sep 25 2025 · Week 5 · 🏟 Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium Greenville, NC · Turf · 50,000 cap
Army✈ 440 miSame TZ
Away
6 28
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Army
21
ECU -3.5
East Carolina
30
P&R Line East Carolina -9.5
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas East Carolina -3.5 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
East Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor East Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
East Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
East Carolina -3.5
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → East Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 East Carolina 2nd straight Home Game
Army 2025 Schedule
Army's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Army vs Tarleton State-14.5L27–3047.5L27–30ON
Sat 9/6Army at Kansas State+17.0W24–2148.5W24–21UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Army vs North Texas+2.5L38–4550.5L38–45ON
Thu 9/25Army at East Carolina+3.5L6–2852.5L6–28UN
Sat 10/4Army at UAB-6.5W31–1355.5W31–13UY
Sat 10/11Army vs Charlotte-17.5W24–745.5W24–7UN
Sat 10/18Army at Tulane+10.0L17–2444.5L17–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Army at Air Force-1.5W20–1748.5W20–17UY
Sat 11/8Army vs Temple-7.5W14–1345.5W14–13UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Army vs Tulsa-10.0L25–2643.5L25–26ON
Sat 11/29Army at UTSA+8.5W27–2450.5W27–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 12/13Army vs Navy+6.0L16–1738.0L16–17UY
Sat 12/27Army vs UConn-5.5W41–1641.5W41–16OY
East Carolina 2025 Schedule
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28East Carolina at NC State+12.5L17–2458.5L17–24UY
Sat 9/6East Carolina vs Campbell-30.0W56–356.0W56–3OY
Sat 9/13East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.0W38–058.0W38–0UY
Sat 9/20East Carolina vs BYU+6.5L13–3449.5L13–34UN
Thu 9/25East Carolina vs Army-3.5W28–652.5W28–6UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9East Carolina at Tulane+7.0L19–2653.5L19–26UY
Thu 10/16East Carolina vs Tulsa-16.5W41–2754.5W41–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1East Carolina at Temple-5.5W45–1458.5W45–14OY
Sat 11/8East Carolina vs Charlotte-29.5W48–2256.5W48–22ON
Sat 11/15East Carolina vs Memphis-3.0W31–2756.5W31–27OY
Sat 11/22East Carolina at UTSA-2.0L24–5862.5L24–58ON
Sat 11/29East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-6.5W42–366.5W42–3UY
Sat 12/27East Carolina vs Pittsburgh+13.5W23–1751.5W23–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
East Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ East Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Army #53
+0.284
East Carolina #40
+0.385
East Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Army #7
+0.644
East Carolina #32
+0.663
East Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Army #121
0.127
East Carolina #11
0.191
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
East Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Army #67
+6.746
East Carolina #63
+7.523
East Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Army #70
+0.805
East Carolina #22
+0.907
East Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Army #39
69.7
East Carolina #22
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
East Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
East Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Army
-1.0
East Carolina
1.4
Offense Rating
Army
14.9
East Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Army
15.9
East Carolina
14.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? East Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Army #66
1.00
East Carolina #18
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Army #48
1.50
East Carolina #36
0.33
East Carolina +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? East Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Army #1
12.6
East Carolina #1
49.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Army #63
75.1
East Carolina #39
42.6
East Carolina +36.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
East Carolina
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
East Carolina
96.8 — 2.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
East Carolina won by 22
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on East Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Army
Jeff Monken #1
81–57 (59%) · Yr 12 at school
OC Cody Worley Yr 2 #1
DC Nate Woody Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
East Carolina
Blake Harrell #1
4–1 (80%) · Yr 2 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 2 #1
DC Josh Aldridge Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself