Tulsa at East Carolina Week 8 College Football Matchup Tulsa at East Carolina Matchup - Week 8
Thu, Oct 16 2025 · Week 8 · 🏟 Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium Greenville, NC · Turf · 50,000 cap
Tulsa✈ 1,039 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
27 41
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Tulsa
19
TLSA +16.5
East Carolina
34
P&R Line East Carolina -15
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas East Carolina -16.5 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
East Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor East Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
East Carolina -16.5
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → East Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Tulsa Coming off BYE
Tulsa 2025 Schedule
Tulsa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Tulsa vs Abilene Christian-5.0W35–759.5W35–7UY
Sat 9/6Tulsa at New Mexico State-3.0L14–2152.5L14–21UN
Sat 9/13Tulsa vs Navy+14.0L23–4252.5L23–42ON
Fri 9/19Tulsa at Oklahoma State+10.5W19–1254.5W19–12UY
Sat 9/27Tulsa vs Tulane+14.5L14–3152.5L14–31UN
Sat 10/4Tulsa at Memphis+21.0L7–4554.5L7–45UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/16Tulsa at East Carolina+16.5L27–4154.5L27–41OY
Sat 10/25Tulsa vs Temple+4.5L37–3852.5L37–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Tulsa at Florida Atlantic+4.5L21–4060.5L21–40ON
Sat 11/15Tulsa vs Oregon State-1.5W31–1450.5W31–14UY
Sat 11/22Tulsa at Army+10.0W26–2543.5W26–25OY
Sat 11/29Tulsa vs UAB-9.0L24–3156.5L24–31UN
East Carolina 2025 Schedule
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28East Carolina at NC State+12.5L17–2458.5L17–24UY
Sat 9/6East Carolina vs Campbell-30.0W56–356.0W56–3OY
Sat 9/13East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.0W38–058.0W38–0UY
Sat 9/20East Carolina vs BYU+6.5L13–3449.5L13–34UN
Thu 9/25East Carolina vs Army-3.5W28–652.5W28–6UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9East Carolina at Tulane+7.0L19–2653.5L19–26UY
Thu 10/16East Carolina vs Tulsa-16.5W41–2754.5W41–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1East Carolina at Temple-5.5W45–1458.5W45–14OY
Sat 11/8East Carolina vs Charlotte-29.5W48–2256.5W48–22ON
Sat 11/15East Carolina vs Memphis-3.0W31–2756.5W31–27OY
Sat 11/22East Carolina at UTSA-2.0L24–5862.5L24–58ON
Sat 11/29East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-6.5W42–366.5W42–3UY
Sat 12/27East Carolina vs Pittsburgh+13.5W23–1751.5W23–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
East Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ East Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Tulsa #105
+0.206
East Carolina #40
+0.357
East Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Tulsa #114
+0.326
East Carolina #32
+0.650
East Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Tulsa #121
0.127
East Carolina #11
0.191
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
East Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Tulsa #106
+6.388
East Carolina #63
+7.537
East Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Tulsa #97
+0.788
East Carolina #22
+0.889
East Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Tulsa #115
72.6
East Carolina #22
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
East Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
East Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Tulsa
0.8
East Carolina
1.4
Offense Rating
Tulsa
16.9
East Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Tulsa
16.1
East Carolina
14.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? East Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Tulsa #57
0.60
East Carolina #18
1.20
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Tulsa #42
0.80
East Carolina #36
0.60
East Carolina +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? East Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Tulsa #1
39.7
East Carolina #1
51.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Tulsa #103
46.2
East Carolina #39
39.0
East Carolina +11.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
East Carolina
87.6 — 7.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
East Carolina won by 14
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on East Carolina. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Tulsa
Tre Lamb #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Ty Darlington Yr 1 #1
DC Mike Gray Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
East Carolina
Blake Harrell #1
4–1 (80%) · Yr 2 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 2 #1
DC Josh Aldridge Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself