East Carolina at Temple Week 10 College Football Matchup East Carolina at Temple Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 1 2025 · Week 10 · 🏟 Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, PA · Turf · 68,532 cap
East Carolina✈ 320 miSame TZ
45 14
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
East Carolina
34
ECU -5.5
Temple
23
P&R Line East Carolina -10.5
P&R Total O/U 56.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas East Carolina -5.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
East Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor East Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
East Carolina -5.5
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → East Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 East Carolina Coming off BYE
East Carolina 2025 Schedule
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28East Carolina at NC State+12.5L17–2458.5L17–24UY
Sat 9/6East Carolina vs Campbell-30.0W56–356.0W56–3OY
Sat 9/13East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.0W38–058.0W38–0UY
Sat 9/20East Carolina vs BYU+6.5L13–3449.5L13–34UN
Thu 9/25East Carolina vs Army-3.5W28–652.5W28–6UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9East Carolina at Tulane+7.0L19–2653.5L19–26UY
Thu 10/16East Carolina vs Tulsa-16.5W41–2754.5W41–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1East Carolina at Temple-5.5W45–1458.5W45–14OY
Sat 11/8East Carolina vs Charlotte-29.5W48–2256.5W48–22ON
Sat 11/15East Carolina vs Memphis-3.0W31–2756.5W31–27OY
Sat 11/22East Carolina at UTSA-2.0L24–5862.5L24–58ON
Sat 11/29East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-6.5W42–366.5W42–3UY
Sat 12/27East Carolina vs Pittsburgh+13.5W23–1751.5W23–17UY
Temple 2025 Schedule
Temple's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Temple at Massachusetts-3.0W42–1051.5W42–10OY
Sat 9/6Temple vs Howard-28.0W55–747.0W55–7OY
Sat 9/13Temple vs Oklahoma+23.5L3–4250.5L3–42UN
Sat 9/20Temple at Georgia Tech+24.5L24–4552.5L24–45OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Temple vs UTSA+6.5W27–2158.5W27–21UY
Sat 10/11Temple vs Navy+10.0L31–3252.5L31–32OY
Sat 10/18Temple at Charlotte-10.0W49–1447.5W49–14OY
Sat 10/25Temple at Tulsa-4.5W38–3752.5W38–37ON
Sat 11/1Temple vs East Carolina+5.5L14–4558.5L14–45ON
Sat 11/8Temple at Army+7.5L13–1445.5L13–14UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/22Temple vs Tulane+7.5L13–3754.5L13–37UN
Fri 11/28Temple at North Texas+20.0L25–5265.5L25–52ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
East Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ East Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
East Carolina #40
+0.491
Temple #46
+0.296
East Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #32
+0.761
Temple #36
+0.524
East Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
East Carolina #11
0.191
Temple #94
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
East Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #63
+8.529
Temple #13
+7.629
East Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
East Carolina #22
+0.927
Temple #46
+0.828
East Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
East Carolina #22
68.8
Temple #92
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
East Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
East Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
East Carolina
1.4
Temple
-4.0
Offense Rating
East Carolina
15.8
Temple
14.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
East Carolina
14.3
Temple
18.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? East Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
East Carolina #18
1.17
Temple #124
0.57
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #36
0.67
Temple #130
1.43
East Carolina +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? East Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
East Carolina #1
56.8
Temple #1
47.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #39
34.4
Temple #107
37.9
East Carolina +9.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
East Carolina
1 — 3 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
East Carolina
7.4 — 85.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
East Carolina won by 31
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on East Carolina. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Blake Harrell #1
4–1 (80%) · Yr 2 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 2 #1
DC Josh Aldridge Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Temple
K. C. Keeler #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Tyler Walker Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Smith Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself