Memphis at East Carolina Week 12 College Football Matchup Memphis at East Carolina Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 15 2025 · Week 12 · 🏟 Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium Greenville, NC · Turf · 50,000 cap
Memphis✈ 711 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
27 31
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Memphis
27
East Carolina
29
P&R Line East Carolina -1.5
P&R Total O/U 56
Confidence 90 High
Vegas East Carolina -3 · O/U 56.5
Matchup Prediction
East Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor East Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
East Carolina -3
O/U 56.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → East Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 East Carolina 2nd straight Home Game
Memphis 2025 Schedule
Memphis's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Memphis vs Chattanooga-30.5W45–1055.5W45–10UY
Sat 9/6Memphis at Georgia State-14.5W38–1657.5W38–16UY
Sat 9/13Memphis at Troy-4.5W28–751.5W28–7UY
Sat 9/20Memphis vs Arkansas+7.0W32–3159.5W32–31OY
Sat 9/27Memphis at Florida Atlantic-14.0W55–2662.5W55–26OY
Sat 10/4Memphis vs Tulsa-21.0W45–754.5W45–7UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/18Memphis at UAB-23.5L24–3159.5L24–31UN
Sat 10/25Memphis vs South Florida+3.5W34–3158.5W34–31OY
Fri 10/31Memphis at Rice-13.5W38–1448.5W38–14OY
Fri 11/7Memphis vs Tulane-3.0L32–3853.5L32–38ON
Sat 11/15Memphis at East Carolina+3.0L27–3156.5L27–31ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/27Memphis vs Navy-3.5L17–2857.5L17–28UN
Fri 12/19Memphis vs NC State+6.0L7–3156.5L7–31UN
East Carolina 2025 Schedule
East Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28East Carolina at NC State+12.5L17–2458.5L17–24UY
Sat 9/6East Carolina vs Campbell-30.0W56–356.0W56–3OY
Sat 9/13East Carolina at Coastal Carolina-7.0W38–058.0W38–0UY
Sat 9/20East Carolina vs BYU+6.5L13–3449.5L13–34UN
Thu 9/25East Carolina vs Army-3.5W28–652.5W28–6UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/9East Carolina at Tulane+7.0L19–2653.5L19–26UY
Thu 10/16East Carolina vs Tulsa-16.5W41–2754.5W41–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1East Carolina at Temple-5.5W45–1458.5W45–14OY
Sat 11/8East Carolina vs Charlotte-29.5W48–2256.5W48–22ON
Sat 11/15East Carolina vs Memphis-3.0W31–2756.5W31–27OY
Sat 11/22East Carolina at UTSA-2.0L24–5862.5L24–58ON
Sat 11/29East Carolina at Florida Atlantic-6.5W42–366.5W42–3UY
Sat 12/27East Carolina vs Pittsburgh+13.5W23–1751.5W23–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
East Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ East Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Memphis #24
+0.349
East Carolina #40
+0.401
East Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Memphis #80
+0.400
East Carolina #32
+0.740
East Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Memphis #30
0.174
East Carolina #11
0.191
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
East Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Memphis #23
+7.454
East Carolina #63
+7.758
East Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Memphis #40
+0.833
East Carolina #22
+0.880
East Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Memphis #60
70.6
East Carolina #22
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
East Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Memphis Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Memphis
3.2
East Carolina
1.4
Offense Rating
Memphis
16.9
East Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Memphis
13.7
East Carolina
14.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? East Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Memphis #72
0.89
East Carolina #18
1.38
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Memphis #27
0.44
East Carolina #36
0.63
East Carolina +0.49
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? East Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Memphis #1
54.3
East Carolina #1
64.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Memphis #68
32.9
East Carolina #39
27.9
East Carolina +9.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on East Carolina. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
41–21 (66%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Tim Cramsey Yr 3 #1
DC Jordon Hankins Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
East Carolina
Blake Harrell #1
4–1 (80%) · Yr 2 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 2 #1
DC Josh Aldridge Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself