Matchup Prediction
Oregon
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oregon entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Oregon wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Oregon wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Oregon -4.5
O/U 41.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Oregon
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Oregon 2025 Schedule
Oregon's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Oregon vs Montana State | -28.0W59–13 | 56.5 | W59–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Oregon vs Oklahoma State | -28.5W69–3 | 55.5 | W69–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Oregon at Northwestern | -25.5W34–14 | 50.5 | W34–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Oregon vs Oregon State | -33.5W41–7 | 58.5 | W41–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Oregon at Penn State | +4.5W30–24 | 52.5 | W30–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Oregon vs Indiana | -7.0L20–30 | 51.5 | L20–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Oregon at Rutgers | -17.5W56–10 | 62.5 | W56–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Oregon vs Wisconsin | -31.5W21–7 | 44.5 | W21–7 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Oregon at Iowa | -4.5W18–16 | 41.5 | W18–16 | U | N |
| Fri 11/14 | Oregon vs Minnesota | -26.5W42–13 | 45.5 | W42–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Oregon vs USC | -10.5W42–27 | 59.5 | W42–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Oregon at Washington | -6.5W26–14 | 51.5 | W26–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/20 | Oregon vs James Madison | -22.5W51–34 | 47.5 | W51–34 | O | N |
| Thu 1/1 | Oregon vs Texas Tech | +1.5W23–0 | 50.5 | W23–0 | U | Y |
| Fri 1/9 | Oregon vs Indiana | +3.0L22–56 | 50.5 | L22–56 | O | N |
Iowa 2025 Schedule
Iowa's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Iowa vs UAlbany | -39.5W34–7 | 48.5 | W34–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Iowa at Iowa State | +3.0L13–16 | 43.0 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Iowa vs Massachusetts | -35.5W47–7 | 44.5 | W47–7 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/19 | Iowa at Rutgers | -2.5W38–28 | 46.5 | W38–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Iowa vs Indiana | +9.5L15–20 | 47.5 | L15–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Iowa at Wisconsin | -5.5W37–0 | 37.5 | W37–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Iowa vs Penn State | -3.5W25–24 | 41.5 | W25–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Iowa vs Minnesota | -7.5W41–3 | 39.5 | W41–3 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Iowa vs Oregon | +4.5L16–18 | 41.5 | L16–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Iowa at USC | +6.5L21–26 | 48.5 | L21–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Iowa vs Michigan State | -17.5W20–17 | 43.0 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Fri 11/28 | Iowa at Nebraska | -5.5W40–16 | 38.5 | W40–16 | O | Y |
| Wed 12/31 | Iowa vs Vanderbilt | +3.0W34–27 | 47.5 | W34–27 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +0.86
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +16.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Oregon
15.9 — 55.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Oregon won by 2
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oregon with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oregon
Dan Lanning #1
35–5 (88%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Will Stein
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tosh Lupoi
Yr 3
#1
Iowa
Kirk Ferentz #1
204–123 (62%)
· Yr 27 at school
OC
Tim Lester
Yr 2
#1
DC
Phil Parker
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓