Michigan State at Iowa Week 13 College Football Matchup Michigan State at Iowa Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 22 2025 · Week 13 · 🏟 Kinnick Stadium Iowa City, IA · Turf · 70,585 cap
Michigan State✈ 369 mi-1 hr TZ
17 20
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Michigan State
15
Iowa
31
P&R Line Iowa -16
P&R Total O/U 46
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Iowa -17.5 · O/U 43.0
Matchup Prediction
Iowa has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Iowa entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Iowa wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Iowa wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Iowa -17.5
O/U 43.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Iowa · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Michigan State 2025 Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.5W23–649.5W23–6UN
Sat 9/6Michigan State vs Boston College-3.5W42–4045.5W42–40ON
Sat 9/13Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.5W41–2455.5W41–24ON
Sat 9/20Michigan State at USC+18.5L31–4555.5L31–45OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Michigan State at Nebraska+12.5L27–3848.5L27–38OY
Sat 10/11Michigan State vs UCLA-7.0L13–3851.5L13–38UN
Sat 10/18Michigan State at Indiana+26.5L13–3849.5L13–38OY
Sat 10/25Michigan State vs Michigan+13.5L20–3147.5L20–31OY
Sat 11/1Michigan State at Minnesota+4.5L20–2344.5L20–23UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/15Michigan State vs Penn State+7.0L10–2848.5L10–28UN
Sat 11/22Michigan State at Iowa+17.5L17–2043.0L17–20UY
Sat 11/29Michigan State vs Maryland-4.0W38–2849.5W38–28OY
Iowa 2025 Schedule
Iowa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Iowa vs UAlbany-39.5W34–748.5W34–7UN
Sat 9/6Iowa at Iowa State+3.0L13–1643.0L13–16UY
Sat 9/13Iowa vs Massachusetts-35.5W47–744.5W47–7OY
Fri 9/19Iowa at Rutgers-2.5W38–2846.5W38–28OY
Sat 9/27Iowa vs Indiana+9.5L15–2047.5L15–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/11Iowa at Wisconsin-5.5W37–037.5W37–0UY
Sat 10/18Iowa vs Penn State-3.5W25–2441.5W25–24ON
Sat 10/25Iowa vs Minnesota-7.5W41–339.5W41–3OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Iowa vs Oregon+4.5L16–1841.5L16–18UY
Sat 11/15Iowa at USC+6.5L21–2648.5L21–26UY
Sat 11/22Iowa vs Michigan State-17.5W20–1743.0W20–17UN
Fri 11/28Iowa at Nebraska-5.5W40–1638.5W40–16OY
Wed 12/31Iowa vs Vanderbilt+3.0W34–2747.5W34–27OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Iowa PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Iowa
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Iowa
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Michigan State #97
+0.204
Iowa #73
+0.380
Iowa Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Michigan State #74
+0.396
Iowa #71
+0.564
Iowa Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Michigan State #110
0.135
Iowa #42
0.169
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Michigan State #64
+7.089
Iowa #20
+8.341
Iowa Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Michigan State #79
+0.803
Iowa #45
+0.897
Iowa Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Michigan State #118
72.7
Iowa #6
66.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Michigan State
-1.7
Iowa
11.5
Offense Rating
Michigan State
15.7
Iowa
18.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Michigan State
17.4
Iowa
7.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Michigan State #113
0.22
Iowa #50
1.22
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan State #73
1.00
Iowa #10
0.56
Iowa +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Michigan State #1
31.5
Iowa #1
51.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan State #90
49.4
Iowa #21
28.3
Iowa +20.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Iowa
45.6 — 35.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Iowa won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Iowa with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brian Lindgren Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Rossi Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa
Kirk Ferentz #1
204–123 (62%) · Yr 27 at school
OC Tim Lester Yr 2 #1
DC Phil Parker Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself