Matchup Prediction
Texas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Texas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas -4.5
O/U 49.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Texas 2024 Schedule
Texas's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Texas vs Colorado State | -35.5W52–0 | 59.0 | W52–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Texas at Michigan | -7.0W31–12 | 42.0 | W31–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Texas vs UTSA | -36.5W56–7 | 56.5 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Texas vs UL Monroe | -43.5W51–3 | 54.5 | W51–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Texas vs Mississippi State | -37.0W35–13 | 58.5 | W35–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Texas vs Oklahoma | -16.5W34–3 | 48.5 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Texas vs Georgia | -4.0L15–30 | 57.0 | L15–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Texas at Vanderbilt | -17.0W27–24 | 50.5 | W27–24 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Texas vs Florida | -24.5W49–17 | 48.5 | W49–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Texas at Arkansas | -13.0W20–10 | 57.5 | W20–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Texas vs Kentucky | -18.5W31–14 | 47.0 | W31–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Texas at Texas A&M | -4.5W17–7 | 49.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Texas vs Georgia | -2.5L19–22 | 50.5 | L19–22 | U | N |
| Sat 12/21 | Texas vs Clemson | -13.5W38–24 | 49.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| Wed 1/1 | Texas vs Arizona State | -13.5W39–31 | 52.5 | W39–31 | O | N |
| Fri 1/10 | Texas vs Ohio State | +6.5L14–28 | 51.5 | L14–28 | U | N |
Texas A&M 2024 Schedule
Texas A&M's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Texas A&M vs Notre Dame | -3.0L13–23 | 47.0 | L13–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Texas A&M vs McNeese | -48.5W52–10 | 56.5 | W52–10 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Texas A&M at Florida | -4.5W33–20 | 47.0 | W33–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Texas A&M vs Bowling Green | -21.0W26–20 | 50.5 | W26–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Texas A&M vs Arkansas | -6.5W21–17 | 50.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Texas A&M vs Missouri | -3.0W41–10 | 47.5 | W41–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Texas A&M at Mississippi State | -21.0W34–24 | 55.5 | W34–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Texas A&M vs LSU | -2.0W38–23 | 54.5 | W38–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Texas A&M at South Carolina | -3.0L20–44 | 43.5 | L20–44 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Texas A&M vs New Mexico State | -38.5W38–3 | 54.5 | W38–3 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Texas A&M at Auburn | -2.5L41–43 | 47.0 | L41–43 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Texas A&M vs Texas | +4.5L7–17 | 49.5 | L7–17 | U | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Texas A&M vs USC | -3.5L31–35 | 56.5 | L31–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas Edge
Texas +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas Edge
Texas +18.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Texas with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
25–14 (64%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Kyle Flood
Yr 3
#1
DC
Pete Kwiatkowski
Yr 2
#1
Texas A&M
Mike Elko #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Collin Klein
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jay Bateman
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓