Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Clemson,
while Game Control favors Texas.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Clemson wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Texas wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Texas -13.5
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Clemson 2024 Schedule
Clemson's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Clemson vs Georgia | +10.5L3–34 | 49.0 | L3–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Clemson vs App State | -13.5W66–20 | 53.5 | W66–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Clemson vs NC State | -17.0W59–35 | 44.0 | W59–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Clemson vs Stanford | -24.0W40–14 | 58.0 | W40–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Clemson at Florida State | -16.5W29–13 | 47.0 | W29–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Clemson at Wake Forest | -21.0W49–14 | 63.0 | W49–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Clemson vs Virginia | -20.0W48–31 | 57.5 | W48–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Clemson vs Louisville | -11.0L21–33 | 62.5 | L21–33 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Clemson at Virginia Tech | -6.5W24–14 | 54.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Clemson at Pittsburgh | -12.0W24–20 | 52.0 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Clemson vs The Citadel | -49.5W51–14 | 58.5 | W51–14 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Clemson vs South Carolina | -2.5L14–17 | 48.5 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 12/7 | Clemson vs SMU | +2.5W34–31 | 56.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/21 | Clemson at Texas | +13.5L24–38 | 49.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
Texas 2024 Schedule
Texas's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Texas vs Colorado State | -35.5W52–0 | 59.0 | W52–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Texas at Michigan | -7.0W31–12 | 42.0 | W31–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Texas vs UTSA | -36.5W56–7 | 56.5 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Texas vs UL Monroe | -43.5W51–3 | 54.5 | W51–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Texas vs Mississippi State | -37.0W35–13 | 58.5 | W35–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Texas vs Oklahoma | -16.5W34–3 | 48.5 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Texas vs Georgia | -4.0L15–30 | 57.0 | L15–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Texas at Vanderbilt | -17.0W27–24 | 50.5 | W27–24 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Texas vs Florida | -24.5W49–17 | 48.5 | W49–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Texas at Arkansas | -13.0W20–10 | 57.5 | W20–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Texas vs Kentucky | -18.5W31–14 | 47.0 | W31–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Texas at Texas A&M | -4.5W17–7 | 49.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Texas vs Georgia | -2.5L19–22 | 50.5 | L19–22 | U | N |
| Sat 12/21 | Texas vs Clemson | -13.5W38–24 | 49.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| Wed 1/1 | Texas vs Arizona State | -13.5W39–31 | 52.5 | W39–31 | O | N |
| Fri 1/10 | Texas vs Ohio State | +6.5L14–28 | 51.5 | L14–28 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Clemson Edge
Clemson +0.08
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas Edge
Texas +4.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas
74.5 — 11.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas won by 14
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Clemson
Dabo Swinney #1
170–43 (80%)
· Yr 16 at school
OC
Garrett Riley
Yr 2
#1
DC
Mickey Conn
Yr 3
#1
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
25–14 (64%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Kyle Flood
Yr 3
#1
DC
Pete Kwiatkowski
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓