Matchup Prediction
Texas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Texas wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Texas wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Texas -18.5
O/U 47.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kentucky 2024 Schedule
Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Kentucky vs Southern Miss | -25.5W31–0 | 50.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Kentucky vs South Carolina | -9.5L6–31 | 41.5 | L6–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Kentucky vs Georgia | +24.0L12–13 | 45.0 | L12–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Kentucky vs Ohio | -19.0W41–6 | 42.0 | W41–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Kentucky at Ole Miss | +15.0W20–17 | 51.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Kentucky vs Vanderbilt | -12.5L13–20 | 44.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Kentucky at Florida | -2.5L20–48 | 42.5 | L20–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Kentucky vs Auburn | -2.0L10–24 | 43.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Kentucky at Tennessee | +17.5L18–28 | 45.5 | L18–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Kentucky vs Murray State | -41.5W48–6 | 54.5 | W48–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Kentucky at Texas | +18.5L14–31 | 47.0 | L14–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Kentucky vs Louisville | +3.5L14–41 | 48.5 | L14–41 | O | N |
Texas 2024 Schedule
Texas's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Texas vs Colorado State | -35.5W52–0 | 59.0 | W52–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Texas at Michigan | -7.0W31–12 | 42.0 | W31–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Texas vs UTSA | -36.5W56–7 | 56.5 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Texas vs UL Monroe | -43.5W51–3 | 54.5 | W51–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Texas vs Mississippi State | -37.0W35–13 | 58.5 | W35–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Texas vs Oklahoma | -16.5W34–3 | 48.5 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Texas vs Georgia | -4.0L15–30 | 57.0 | L15–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Texas at Vanderbilt | -17.0W27–24 | 50.5 | W27–24 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Texas vs Florida | -24.5W49–17 | 48.5 | W49–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Texas at Arkansas | -13.0W20–10 | 57.5 | W20–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Texas vs Kentucky | -18.5W31–14 | 47.0 | W31–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Texas at Texas A&M | -4.5W17–7 | 49.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Texas vs Georgia | -2.5L19–22 | 50.5 | L19–22 | U | N |
| Sat 12/21 | Texas vs Clemson | -13.5W38–24 | 49.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| Wed 1/1 | Texas vs Arizona State | -13.5W39–31 | 52.5 | W39–31 | O | N |
| Fri 1/10 | Texas vs Ohio State | +6.5L14–28 | 51.5 | L14–28 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas Edge
Texas +1.21
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas Edge
Texas +32.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Texas
80.8 — 8.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas won by 17
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Texas with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kentucky
Mark Stoops #1
73–65 (53%)
· Yr 12 at school
OC
Bush Hamdan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brad White
Yr 3
#1
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
25–14 (64%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Kyle Flood
Yr 3
#1
DC
Pete Kwiatkowski
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓