Miami at South Florida Week 4 College Football Matchup Miami at South Florida Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Raymond James Stadium Tampa, FL · Turf · 65,857 cap
Miami✈ 197 miSame TZ
Away
50 15
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami
42
MIAMI -17
South Florida
23
P&R Line Miami -19
P&R Total O/U 65
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Miami -17 · O/U 64.5
Matchup Prediction
Miami has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Miami wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
Miami wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Miami -17
O/U 64.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Miami · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Miami 2024 Schedule
Miami's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Miami at Florida-2.5W41–1754.5W41–17OY
Sat 9/7Miami vs Florida A&M-46.5W56–955.5W56–9OY
Sat 9/14Miami vs Ball State-36.5W62–055.5W62–0OY
Sat 9/21Miami at South Florida-17.0W50–1564.5W50–15OY
Fri 9/27Miami vs Virginia Tech-17.5W38–3455.5W38–34ON
Sat 10/5Miami at California-10.0W39–3854.0W39–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Miami at Louisville-4.5W52–4561.5W52–45OY
Sat 10/26Miami vs Florida State-22.5W36–1455.0W36–14UN
Sat 11/2Miami vs Duke-21.0W53–3155.5W53–31OY
Sat 11/9Miami at Georgia Tech-9.5L23–2864.5L23–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Miami vs Wake Forest-23.5W42–1467.0W42–14UY
Sat 11/30Miami at Syracuse-12.5L38–4265.5L38–42ON
Sat 12/28Miami vs Iowa State-5.0L41–4262.0L41–42ON
South Florida 2024 Schedule
South Florida's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31South Florida vs Bethune-Cookman-22.5
Sat 9/7South Florida at Alabama+33.5L16–4265.5L16–42UY
Sat 9/14South Florida at Southern Miss-13.0W49–2458.5W49–24OY
Sat 9/21South Florida vs Miami+17.0L15–5064.5L15–50ON
Sat 9/28South Florida at Tulane+4.0L10–4560.5L10–45UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12South Florida vs Memphis+10.0L3–2161.0L3–21UN
Sat 10/19South Florida vs UAB-14.0W35–2555.5W35–25ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/1South Florida at Florida Atlantic-1.5W44–2148.0W44–21OY
Sat 11/9South Florida vs Navy+4.5L7–2859.5L7–28UN
Sat 11/16South Florida at Charlotte+1.5W59–2453.5W59–24OY
Sat 11/23South Florida vs Tulsa-17.5W63–3060.0W63–30OY
Sat 11/30South Florida at Rice-5.5L28–3553.5L28–35ON
Tue 12/24South Florida vs San José State-1.5W41–3966.5W41–39OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Miami PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami #2
+0.565
South Florida #83
+0.330
Miami Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami #6
+0.744
South Florida #113
+0.359
Miami Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami #39
0.180
South Florida #15
0.197
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
South Florida Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami #2
+8.959
South Florida #74
+7.895
Miami Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami #1
+0.916
South Florida #118
+0.765
Miami Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami #55
70.3
South Florida #32
69.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
South Florida Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami
24.1
South Florida
1.9
Offense Rating
Miami
27.0
South Florida
18.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami
2.9
South Florida
16.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami #2
5.00
South Florida #75
1.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami #35
0.00
South Florida #106
1.50
Miami +3.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami #1
84.8
South Florida #1
57.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami #16
6.1
South Florida #108
26.6
Miami +27.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami
2 — 3 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Miami
10.5 — 69.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Miami won by 35
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
12–13 (48%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Shannon Dawson Yr 2 #1
DC Lance Guidry Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
South Florida
Alex Golesh #1
7–6 (54%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Joel Gordon Yr 2 #1
DC Todd Orlando Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself